Mutua Madrid Open best bets for Thursday, April 25th
It feels like the tennis season never slows down, but that’s a great thing for bettors. This sport offers all sorts of betting opportunities, which is why I’m going to provide you with tennis best bets as often as possible. And that continues with a run of clay-court tournaments over the next couple of months. Over the next two weeks, the biggest ATP and WTA tournaments are in Spain, as the top players in the world compete in a 1000-level event. The Mutua Madrid Open is one of the most exciting tournaments of the year, so make sure you tune in for some of the action. Below you’ll find some of my tennis best bets for Thursday, April 25th.
I’d also strongly suggest coming back to this story throughout the day. I try to write up as many matches as I can in advance, but it’s hard to do that in an international sport. I also like to throw in some Challenger-level bets. That said, I’ll probably be adding picks to the bottom of the story. I’ll also throw them on the Pro Picks page.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2024 Record: 233-244 (+26.92 units)
Emil Ruusuvuori vs. Tomas Machac – Madrid
Joao Fonseca vs. Alex Michelsen – Madrid
I’m going to start Thursday’s Madrid action off with a two-leg moneyline parlay. I like both Tomas Machac and Joao Fonseca to win their matches, but I’d rather not play them at nearly -200 odds. And I don’t want to lay any games or sets in these matches. Instead, I’m parlaying them together for a plus-money parlay.
Machac had to pull out of Barcelona, so his health is a small concern right now. But he has had some time to get healthy since then. And it’s just hard not to like him to beat Emil Ruusuvuori. Ruusuvuori enters this tournament on a three-match losing streak. And he hasn’t played a clay-court match all season. While Machac withdrew from Barcelona, he at least earned a win over Juncheng Shang before leaving. Shang is a solid clay-court player, as evidenced by his win over Corentin Moutet on Wednesday. Also, not only is Ruusuvuori lacking in form right now, but Machac is a tough matchup for him. Both of these guys have a lot of weapons on the court, but Machac is way more consistent. He’s also a really good returner, so he can take advantage of a shaky Ruusuvuori serve.
In the other match, Alex Michelsen could be in for a rough day at the office. Michelsen has a booming first serve, and he has some weapons from the baseline. But he’s a young player that is at his best on hard courts. And I’m just not sure he has the movement skills or shot variety to beat Fonseca, a natural clay-court player. Fonseca has been so good in 2024 that he decided to pass on playing college tennis. And a lot of that had to do with his success on the Golden Swing. So, I like his chances of beating Michelsen here, as he knows the ins and outs of clay-court tennis. Fonseca also happens to have some impressive weapons himself. He’s not just a clever player that hits with heavy topspin, giving him an edge on clay. Fonseca also has serious power from both wings. So, he’ll be able to match what Michelsen is putting on the ball, but he’ll have a much better idea of where to go with his strokes. Fonseca will also disrupt the Michelsen serve, which will be easier to return on the dirt.
PARLAY: Machac ML + Fonseca ML (+135 – 2 units)
Roberto Carballes Baena vs. Dominik Koepfer – Madrid
This is a match that I’m going to keep pretty simple. Dominik Koepfer is a pretty good player, but he wins matches on the back of a good serve and a powerful baseline game. However, his serve isn’t as good as it needs to be in order to do that consistently, which probably has a lot to do with him being somewhat small. Also, he struggles to hold at a high clip on clay, and he really hasn’t played that many clay-court matches overall. Meanwhile, Carballes Baena is a clay-court specialist and has won a ton of matches on the dirt. He’s also playing in front of his home fans here, which should give him some extra adrenaline. Carballes Baena is also a very good defender, so he’ll be able to prevent Koepfer from slapping winners in this match. He’s also a pretty good returner on clay, so he’ll get to the Koepfer serve. All in all, this is a match I’m attacking pretty hard. Carballes Baena should be favored by a lot more.
Bet: Carballes Baena ML (-145 – 2 units)
Added Plays
PARLAY: Felix Auger-Aliassime ML vs. Yoshihito Nishioka [Madrid] + Alexander Ritschard ML vs. Omar Jasika [Savannah Challenger] (-160 – 1.5 units)
Federico Agustin Gomez ML (-147 – 1.5 units) vs. Aidan Mayo [Savannah Challenger]
Arthur Fery ML (-139 – 1.5 units) vs. Mark Lajal [Shenzhen Challenger]
