Indian Wells best bets for Thursday, March 14th
It feels like the tennis season never slows down, but that’s a great thing for bettors. This sport offers all sorts of betting opportunities, which is why I’m going to provide you with tennis best bets as often as possible. For the next couple of days, the ATP and WTA Tours will be at Indian Wells Tennis Garden in Indian Wells, California. This venue is known as “Tennis Paradise” and many consider this 1000-level event to be the fifth slam. That said, all of the top players were in the field for this event, and you won’t want to miss the rest of this tournament. With that in mind, keep reading for my best bets for Thursday, March 14th. Also, I’d strongly suggest coming back to this story throughout the day. I’ll occasionally add picks to the bottom of the story. I’ll also throw them on the Pro Picks page.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2023 Record: 275-249 (+47.53 units)
2024 Record: 145-172 (-7.50 units)
Alexander Zverev vs. Carlos Alcaraz
Jiri Lehecka vs. Jannik Sinner
Alcaraz has lost two matches in a row against Zverev, but those defeats came when the Spaniard was noticeably struggling. At last year’s ATP Finals, Alcaraz looked fatigued from a very long 2023 season. And he didn’t quite look right at the Australian Open. But Alcaraz has really found his game again in Indian Wells. These slow hard courts are just perfect for his approach. Alcaraz is one of the best movers in the men’s game, so hitting the ball by him on slower courts is a tough task. He also has so much power on his own that he is able to hit through the conditions. With that in mind, Zverev is going to be at a real disadvantage from the baseline. It also doesn’t help that Alcaraz is going to target his faulty forehand relentlessly.
Zverev could also have some trouble serving here. Alcaraz is one of the best returners in the sport, and these courts make things a lot easier on the returner. Well, if Zverev isn’t easily winning his service games, winning this match is going to be nearly impossible for him. Zverev also came to the net a lot in his win over Alex De Minaur last round. That strategy would be risky against Alcaraz. The 20-year-old is very good at hitting lobs for winners, or just blasting the ball by opponents at the net.
Overall, I’m not too concerned about Alcaraz losing this match. But I don’t love the idea of laying 3.5 games, as Zverev’s ability to serve still needs to be accounted for — even in Indian Wells. And at odds of -160 or so, I’d rather parlay Alcaraz and Sinner on the moneyline than pay a premium to take the Spaniard -2.5 games. It’d be appalling if Sinner loses to Lehecka.
PARLAY: Alcaraz/Sinner ML (-161 – 2 units)
Added Plays
Marta Kostyuk ML (-138 – 2 units) vs. Anastasia Potapova
Maria Sakkari ML (+100 – 1.5 units) vs. Emma Navarro
Quick Note
If you took my advice on backing Holger Rune to win the quarter, you have an opportunity to hedge tonight. I’d probably suggest letting it ride because I don’t want to put a huge dent in any potential winnings by playing Daniil Medvedev as a -225 favorite. But if you want to play it safe, putting 2U on Medvedev to set up a situation in which you’re guaranteed either +3.5 units or a small profit of +1 unit isn’t the worst idea in the world.
Wednesday’s Plays
PARLAY: Casper Ruud ML vs. Gael Monfils & Coco Gauff ML vs. Elise Mertens (-111 – 2 units)
Grigor Dimitrov ML vs. Daniil Medvedev (+156 – 2 units)
Daria Kasatkina -2.5 Games (-126 – 2 units) vs. Yue Yuan
Terence Atmane ML (+120 – 2 units) vs. Sebastian Ofner [Phoenix Challenger]
