Bastad, Gstaad, Hamburg, Newport predictions and best bets for July 15th
This is a bit of an awkward stretch on the tennis schedule, as Wimbledon just ended and players are now competing all over the world. There’s another grass-court event on the schedule this week, with some players battling it out in Newport. Meanwhile, a majority of the top players are turning their attention to clay-court tennis, and they’ll be doing that in Bastad, Gstaad and Hamburg. For a lot of these athletes, competing on clay is a good way to prepare for the Olympic Games. But things won’t be as confusing in a few weeks. Once the action in Paris is over, we’ll transition to the exciting part of the hard-court season. However, we’re still treating this week like any other by searching for some tennis best bets. That said, make sure you keep reading for my tennis predictions for Monday, July 15th.
I’m going to quickly hit on some of my favorites below, but I usually have more tennis picks on the Pro Picks page. I also occasionally add some plays throughout the day, as schedules can get wonky with the international nature of the sport. I also like to see how odds are moving. That said, keep checking the page every couple of hours if you want more of my picks.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2024 Record: 511-515 (+35.62 units)
Juan Pablo Varillas vs. Dominic Thiem – Gstaad
At his peak, Thiem was one of the best clay-court players in the game. However, the Austrian isn’t anywhere near that level right now, which is why he’s planning on retiring after this season. Thiem, who is only 30 years old, has consistently battled injuries over the last few years, making it hard for him to find any sort of rhythm. He’s just 21-29 at the ATP level over the last two seasons, and he’s also 1-2 at the Challenger level this year. With that in mind, you can’t make the mistake of backing the player you know in this one. Varillas is a good clay-court player, and he has really played nothing but clay-court matches in 2024. That means he’ll be comfortable when he gets out on the dirt here. On the other hand, Thiem at least tried to transition over to grass, but he lost his only match in Mallorca and didn’t have an opportunity to play Wimbledon.
Varillas also happened to win in straight sets the last time these two met on clay, which was in Buenos Aires in 2023. That was a 6-4, 6-4 win for Varillas, which isn’t a good sign for Thiem. The Austrian has been worse in 2024 than he was in 2023, making it hard to imagine him winning this one. Thiem’s serve just isn’t good enough and he’s no longer dangerous as a returner either. And Varillas is an absolute grinder along the baseline, so Thiem will struggle to finish points — which has been a major weakness for him lately.
Bet: Varillas ML (-138 – 1.5 units)
Rudolf Molleker vs. Alexander Shevchenko – Hamburg
This feels like a really good spot to back Molleker, who will be excited about playing in Germany. Molleker is a player with big-time power from the baseline, and he also possesses the ability to really dial things in and hold serve easily. On top of that, Molleker has played four clay-court matches in the last two weeks. That’s pretty significant when considering that Shevchenko came here straight from playing his final grass-court match. Sure, Shevchenko has been practicing on the dirt, but nothing gets you ready for clay-court matches quite like more clay-court matches. That said, Molleker should be a little more comfortable from the jump. And I just don’t really see him having trouble with Shevchenko’s unique style. The Kazakhstani is going to try and move him around the court and get a little creative in finding ways to win points — he likes to utilize the drop shot and he’s a good net player. But Molleker is going to make that tough on him by simply blasting the ball and not giving Shevchenko time to construct points.
Bet: Molleker ML (+135)
Jozef Kovalik vs. Cameron Norrie – Bastad
Since losing in Wimbledon qualifiers, Kovalik is 5-1 in the six clay-court matches he has played. He also happened to win a Challenger title in Karlsruhe last week, so he’s feeling good entering this one. Meanwhile, Norrie hasn’t played a clay-court match since May, and he might struggle to get up for this match mentally. The last time Norrie played, he was in an adrenaline-filled match against Alexander Zverev at Wimbledon. That was one that he played in front of his home crowd. Well, Norrie isn’t going to have overwhelming crowd support here. So, not only will he be trying to re-adjust to the dirt, but he could be a little flat in doing it.
Norrie was also struggling mightily before heading to Wimbledon. The Brit’s record this season is a bit of a nightmare and there’s a reason he is now just 42nd in the world. Overall, this is just a winnable match for Kovalik, which is why I’m taking a shot on it at plus-money odds. I also like that he’s an aggressive baseliner. He’s not going to sit back and let Norrie dictate play. Kovalik is going to be the aggressor and move Norrie around.
Bet: Kovalik ML (+115)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
