Bastad, Budapest, Gstaad, Hamburg, Newport, Palermo predictions and best bets for July 17th
This is a bit of an awkward stretch on the tennis schedule, as Wimbledon just ended and players are now competing all over the world. There’s another grass-court event on the schedule for the men this week, with some players battling it out in Newport. Meanwhile, a bunch of the others are turning their attention to clay-court tennis, and they’ll be doing that in Bastad, Gstaad and Hamburg. For a lot of these athletes, competing on clay is a good way to prepare for the Olympic Games. On the WTA side of things, the women are competing in Budapest and Palermo. But things won’t be as confusing in a few weeks. Once the action in Paris is over, we’ll transition to the exciting part of the hard-court season. However, we’re still treating this week like any other by searching for some tennis best bets. In fact, it’s a great week to bet on tennis, as we have six ATP and WTA events to choose from. That said, make sure you keep reading for my tennis predictions for Wednesday, July 17th.
I’m going to quickly hit on some of my favorites below, but I usually have more tennis picks on the Pro Picks page. I also occasionally add some plays throughout the day, as schedules can get wonky with the international nature of the sport. I also like to see how odds are moving. That said, keep checking the page every couple of hours if you want more of my picks.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2024 Record: 518-519 (+39.65 units)
Anna Schmiedlova vs. Sara Sorribes Tormo – Budapest
You’ll have to pay up a bit in order to take Sorribes Tormo on the moneyline, but I really think it’s worth it. Sorribes Tormo is 3-0 against Schmiedlova in her career, and that includes two hard-court victories. That’s particularly impressive because Sorribes Tormo is at her best on clay. She’s 60-52 on the dirt at the ATP level and 13-7 on the surface over the last 52 weeks. She also won 6-4, 6-0 when these two met in a clay-court Challenger in 2019. Schmiedlova has undoubtedly gotten better since then, but I don’t think she has made enough improvements to beat Sorribes Tormo here. The interesting thing here is that Schmiedlova also prefers clay, and she’s a defensive-minded player. The latter also describes Sorribes Tormo’s game. But the Spaniard is just a little better at grinding out wins. Somebody has to finish points between these two, and it’s Schmiedlova that is more likely to miss when she tries to end rallies. I also trust Sorribes Tormo’s legs a bit more if this goes to a decider.
Bet: Sorribes Tormo ML (-167)
Hamad Medjedovic vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas – Gstaad
It feels like Tsitsipas hasn’t been playing very well lately. But when you zoom out, you see that the Greek star has won 12 of his last 15 matches. And his loss to Emil Ruusuvuori at Wimbledon wasn’t all that surprising. Tsitsipas has never been a great grass-court player. Instead, it’s best to look at what Tsitsipas has done on clay, where he is 17-5 over the last 52 weeks and won a massive title in Monte Carlo. Also, Tsitsipas’ only losses on clay this season came against Casper Ruud, Thiago Monteiro, Nicolas Jarry and Carlos Alcaraz. Sure, he should have found a way to beat Monteiro, but all of those guys are excellent on clay.
I’m really big on Medjedovic’s future and believe he’ll be a top-20 player very soon. But Medjedovic occasionally plays some careless games, which you can’t do against a player like Tsitsipas. The 25-year-old is too good at serving and won’t give Medjedovic many chances to break. Meanwhile, Tsitsipas’ return game might be a little weak on most surfaces, but he’s breaking at 30.3% on clay over the last 52 weeks. So, he should be able to put a little pressure on the Medjedovic serve.
Tsitsipas’ baseline game could be a little overwhelming for Medjedovic too. He really moves well on the clay and his forehand will be the biggest weapon on the court. And Medjedovic won’t be able to target the Tsitsipas backhand on clay, as the ball tends to go right in his strike zone on this surface. With that in mind, I like Tsitsipas’ chances here. And I’m rolling with him to cover 2.5 games, as I think he’ll get some break opportunities. But if you don’t trust him to do that, maybe you can use Tsitsipas as a moneyline parlay anchor. I’d be stunned if he loses this match.
Bet: Tsitsipas -2.5 Games (-138)
Reilly Opelka vs. Adrian Mannarino – Newport
Opelka just came back from a very lengthy injury layoff. The American has dealt with a lot over the last few years. However, he looked good in his win over Constant Lestienne in his first match here. As long as Opelka can bomb away with his serve, he has the ability to stay in matches. And that’s ultimately why I’m grabbing the number and taking a shot on him to beat Mannarino. The Frenchman has just been a disaster this season, as he’s 9-18 on the year and has lost 11 of his last 12 matches. I just don’t think you can rule out the possibility of Mannarino playing a weak service game or two here. And against Opelka, that’s enough to lose you a match. Mannarino has learned that the hard way, as he is 0-3 against the American in his career. And that was when Mannarino was playing at a much higher level.
Bet: Opelka ML (+150)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
