Stuttgart, Nottingham and ‘s-Hertogenbosch predictions and best bets for June 14th
With the French Open having just ended, the tennis action will be all over the place until Wimbledon (which I already previewed). There are grass-court events in all different parts of the world (Stuttgart, Nottingham, ‘s-Hertogenbosch), and there are also some Challenger-level events being played on clay. I’ll be taking a bit of a scattered approach over the next few weeks, taking advantage of the insane amount of tennis to find value wherever I can. I’ll then dial things in a bit more once we get to the Cinch Championships at the Queen’s Club in London next week. With that in mind, keep reading for a few of my tennis best bets and tennis predictions for Friday, June 14th.
I’m going to quickly hit on some of my favorite picks below, but I usually have a lot more on the Pro Picks page. I also occasionally add some picks throughout the day, as schedules can get wonky with the international nature of the sport. I also like to see how odds are moving. That said, keep checking the page throughout the day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2024 Record: 381-392 (+31.92 units)
Sebatian Korda vs. Tommy Paul – Hertogenbosch
I had Korda as the first leg of a losing parlay on Thursday, and the American handled his end of the bargain. He earned a 7-5, 7-5 win over Luca Nardi, marking his second straight-set win in a row. Korda now gets a significant step up in competition, as Paul is the second-seeded player in this tournament and is extremely tough to beat. However, Korda’s game is a bit of a better fit for grass-court tennis, so I’m expecting him to come away with a massive win here.
Paul is one of the fastest players in the world, and his ability to play defense is valuable anywhere. But there’s no denying that it’s least valuable on grass, and this match will likely come down to ball striking. Well, Korda is one of the cleanest ball strikers in the world, which is why he was pegged as a potential sleeper heading into Wimbledon last year. That obviously didn’t end up going very well, but this is a new year and I think he’s going to do some damage before we switch surfaces again. Korda is also 3-1 against Paul in his career, so this is a matchup in which he should be feeling confident.
Bet: Korda ML (+102 – 1.5 units)
Jack Draper vs. Frances Tiafoe – Stuttgart
I’m never thrilled about playing something at -180 odds, but I like Draper to win and I don’t trust him to cover a spread. The Brit is absolutely tremendous on this surface, so I simply don’t see him losing to Tiafoe. But Draper is not as good of a returner as you’d like, so I can see him closing this out in long, competitive sets — and I can even see him dropping one. Still, Draper has a little too much all-around game for this version of Tiafoe. The American has not been playing good tennis this year, with his serving and returning dropping off from 2023. That’s not what you want on a surface in which those things are of the upmost importance.
I also just think Draper’s ability to maneuver himself around a grass court will make a big difference here. He should have a slight edge in long baseline exchanges. When you combine that with his big serve and rock-solid net play, it’s hard to see how Tiafoe will beat him on his favorite surface.
Bet: Draper ML (-180)
Milos Raonic vs. Alex De Minaur – Hertogenbosch
Raonic had more trouble with Roberto Bautista Agut than I imagined, and De Minaur pretty easily took care of Zizou Bergs. However, I still have a hard time envisioning De Minaur wiping the court with Raonic on grass. This is probably a match in which De Minaur’s mobility and sturdiness will ultimately allow him to advance, but the Australian isn’t a very good server and Raonic is one of the best servers on the planet. And while that might sound like too simple of a handicap, I just can’t ignore that on a surface that rewards big serving more than any other. With that in mind, I’m taking Raonic to cover a 4.5-game spread. A 7-6, 6-3 loss would mean a cover and that feels like a very realistic outcome. But I also see Raonic taking a set because of his ability to rack up holds. So, this just feels like a play that needs to be made.
Bet: Raonic +4.5 Games (-142 – 1.5 units)
Lorenzo Musetti vs. Alexander Bublik – Stuttgart
Bublik is a very dangerous grass-court player, as he has a booming serve, the ability to play at the net and the skill to change things up from the baseline. Overall, it shouldn’t surprise anybody if he ends up doing big things in the next couple of weeks. But Bublik is still a highly erratic player, and his mental lapses make it hard to picture him beating Musetti in straight sets. Grass might not be Musetti’s best surface, but he definitely has the game to win matches on it. Musetti is a good mover and has serious power from both wings. He also has the ability to rack up holds when he’s dialed in as a server. With that in mind, I’m taking a shot on the Italian to win a set against Bublik. I don’t think much separates these two players.
Bet: Musetti +1.5 Sets (-155)
Added Plays
I already have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
Thursday’s Plays
I also had the following plays on the Pro Picks page:
Emilio Nava ML (-110) vs. Mattia Bellucci [Nottingham Challenger]
Matteo Gigante ML (-139 – 1.5 units) vs. Fabio Fognini [Perugia Challenger]
Ekaterina Alexandrova ML vs. Emina Bektas [Hertogenbosch] + Brandon Nakashima ML vs. Richard Gasquet [Stuttgart] (-126 – 1.5 units)
