Stuttgart, Nottingham and ‘s-Hertogenbosch predictions and best bets for June 13th
With the French Open having just ended, the tennis action will be all over the place until Wimbledon (which I already previewed). There are grass-court events in all different parts of the world (Stuttgart, Nottingham, ‘s-Hertogenbosch), and there are also some Challenger-level events being played on clay. I’ll be taking a bit of a scattered approach over the next few weeks, taking advantage of the insane amount of tennis to find value wherever I can. I’ll then dial things in a bit more once we get to the Cinch Championships at the Queen’s Club in London next week. With that in mind, keep reading for a few of my tennis best bets and tennis predictions for Thursday, June 13th.
I’m going to quickly hit on some of my favorite picks below, but I usually have a lot more on the Pro Picks page. I also occasionally add some picks throughout the day, as schedules can get wonky with the international nature of the sport. I also like to see how odds are moving. That said, keep checking the page throughout the day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2024 Record: 378-389 (+33.55 units)
Milos Raonic vs. Roberto Bautista Agut – Hertogenbosch
I was on Raonic to beat Jordan Thompson in the opening round. The Canadian came through with a straightforward 6-3, 6-4 victory. That was Raonic’s first match since Indian Wells, but I wasn’t all that worried about him being rusty. On grass courts, Raonic’s massive serve gives him a good shot against anyone. And he actually looked smoother than expected as a returner and baseliner. Well, that performance was enough for me to jump on him in this meeting with Bautista Agut. I know that the Spaniard was able to beat Marc-Andrea Huesler last round, but this will be a different type of challenge for him.
Bautista Agut is going to have an edge in longer rallies here, but that’s not very important on grass. Raonic is going to have a much easier time holding, whether it’s by serving up aces or coming up with big serve-plus-one opportunities. And Bautista Agut’s serve is one of the parts of his game that is really tailing off with age, so I think he’ll give Raonic some chances to break. That’s all I really care about, which is why I jumped on Raonic at -155 odds. And I think this is playable up to -180 or so.
Bet: Raonic ML (-155)
Luca Nardi vs. Sebastian Korda – Hertogenbosch
James Duckworth vs. Ben Shelton – Stuttgart
I really like Korda to take care of business against Nardi, but I don’t feel like laying games or sets. While Korda is the more talented player, he’s not exactly a player that I trust to earn straightforward victories. He tends to play with his food and go through mental lapses quite often. But overall, Korda’s all-around baseline power and clean ball striking makes him a natural on the grass. And I’d be surprised if he lets this match slip away. Nardi obviously scored a big win over Novak Djokovic earlier in the year, but he’s still unproven and has very little grass-court experience.
In order to get Korda at reasonable odds, I’m throwing in an all-American moneyline parlay and pairing him with Shelton. I know that Shelton has only played six grass-court matches in his career, but there’s no reason he shouldn’t be able to blast Duckworth off the court here. Shelton’s massive serve and go-for-broke baseline game makes him a perfect fit for these speeding fast surfaces. Look for Shelton to pretty easily rack up holds, and his aggressive return game should get to Duckworth a few times. Shelton’s return game has been a problem this season, but Duckworth isn’t good enough to take advantage of that.
PARLAY: Korda ML + Shelton ML (-123 – 1.5 units)
Zizou Bergs vs. Alex De Minaur – Hertogenbosch
De Minaur has had more success on grass than you’d think, as he’s 25-17 on the surface. The reason that’s surprising is that De Minaur is a player that likes to grind opponents down with his ability to defend the baseline. That’s really hard to do on extremely fast surfaces. Of course, De Minaur is productive on the fast hard courts in Australia, so perhaps it shouldn’t be too shocking. And De Minaur should only have more success on grass in his career, as he continues to make improvements as a server. He has also added a little punch on the forehand side. However, I’d be surprised if the Australian runs away with a victory against Bergs.
I just don’t think a small letdown can be ruled out for De Minaur, who just suffered a tough loss in the quarterfinals of the French Open. De Minaur is also transitioning from the slowest surface in the world to the fastest, and he’s doing so without much preparation. Meanwhile, Bergs has played three grass-court matches already, and he’s in decent form right now. Bergs has won seven of his last nine matches, and he’s starting to carry over some of his Challenger-level success to the ATP Tour. And Bergs really should be an effective grass-court player, as he’s aggressive from the baseline and hits a very flat ball. If Bergs is clicking, he’s going to make it hard for De Minaur to counterpunch. That said, I’m playing Bergs to cover a 4.5-game spread.
Bet: Bergs +4.5 Games (-122)
Added Plays
I already have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
Wednesday’s Plays
I also had the following plays on the Pro Picks page:
PARLAY: Draper ML vs. Giron [Stuttgart] + Boulter ML vs. Marino [Nottingham] (-120 – 1.5 units)
PARLAY: Brouwer +4.5 Games vs. Mannarino + Koepfer +1.5 Sets vs. Musetti [Stuttgart] (100)
PARLAY: Kukushkin ML vs. Kypson [Nottingham Challenger] + Hanfmann +1.5 Sets vs. Tiafoe [Stuttgart] (+109)
