Acapulco, Dubai, Merida tennis best bets for February 25th
Between the ATP and WTA Tours, we’ll have five tournaments to watch this week. I’m going to continue churning out tennis best bets from Sunday to Thursday (until some of the bigger tournaments arrive, my plays for most semifinals and finals will be on the picks page), so come back to the website for writeups on the 500-level events — like Acapulco, Dubai and Merida. The fields for Acapulco and Dubai are especially interesting, so I’ll pay closer attention to those two. Also, make sure you’re checking out the picks page for all of my action for smaller tournaments and Challengers.
We’re entering the most exciting portion of the tennis calendar, as there are several 1000-level events in the coming weeks. Those then flow into the majors, so everything heats up pretty quickly. We’ll be covering all of them, whether that’s with my columns or Gill Alexander’s excellent work on A Numbers Game. That said, if you like tennis, now is the time to consider a VSiN Pro subscription!
With all of that in mind, check out my Acapulco, Dubai and Merida best bets for Tuesday, February 25th.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
Luca Nardi vs. Marton Fucsovics – Dubai
This is a really interesting matchup in the Round of 32, as Fucsovics beat Nardi 7-6 (5), 6-4 in qualifying and now has to face him again as a lucky loser. Of course, having defeated Nardi in straight sets should give Fucsovics some confidence that he can do it again. However, it’s always a little awkward having to beat the same player twice, and it’s not like he pummeled him. In fact, Nardi was serving for the opening set at 5-4, so he had a real shot at taking a lead. Things might have played out differently had he won that. And realistically, the fact that Nardi got so close to taking that set makes it hard not to like him to win one when they meet again.
While Fucsovics is on a nine-match winning streak and just won a Challenger in Manama, I don’t think there’s all that much that separates these guys. And you only have to go back to last week for a match in which Nardi went blow-for-blow with Carlos Alcaraz, pushing the Spaniard to three sets with some tremendous shot-making in Doha.
Fucsovics is definitely the stronger server between these two players, but Nardi matches up pretty well outside of that. The Italian is a better returner and can easily play better tennis from the baseline on the right day. So, I’m taking a shot on him to win a set and also sprinkling the moneyline. It doesn’t hurt that Nardi will feel like he has very little to lose here. He’s not even supposed to be in the main draw.
Bet: Nardi +1.5 Sets (-143 – 1.5 units) & Nardi ML (+182 – 0.5 units)
Alexander Bublik vs. Felix Auger Aliassime – Dubai
Auger Aliassime is a better tennis player than Bublik, but the Russian’s best level is capable of hanging with that of the Canadian. When Bublik is playing solid tennis, his serve is very difficult to return, his power is overwhelming and he keeps you on your toes with his ability to hit all different types of shots. The issue with Bublik is motivation. But Bublik has a ton of points to defend in Dubai, as he made a run all the way to the final here last year. So, while this is a difficult opening-round matchup, Bublik should really come out with some intensity here.
Bublik has also had success against Auger Aliassime in the past. He actually beat the Canadian 4-6, 6-4, 6-4 in Montpellier last year, and he has now won two of his last three matches against him. So, at -106 odds, I’m having a hard time passing on Bublik to win a set. And I really don’t think it’s out of the question he wins the match outright. This is a match in which both players will rack up holds easily, meaning a few key points will decide the outcome. That’s more of a 50-50 than the implied 75-25.
Bet: Bublik +1.5 Sets (-106 – 1.5 units) & Bublik ML (+275 – 0.5 units)
Francesca Jones vs. Mayar Sherif – Merida
Alexandre Muller vs. Frances Tiafoe – Acapulco
Jones is playing some decent tennis to start the 2025 season, as she’s 8-3 in the 11 matches she has played. Of course, you can easily write that off because a lot of the wins have come in WTA-level qualifying matches and 125-level events. But an 8-3 record at least means she’s going out and beating the players on the other side of the net. And all three of her losses in 2025 have come in three-setters, and two of them have come against proven WTA-level talents: Jil Teichmann and Katerina Siniakova. I’ll take all of that over Sherif’s resume, which includes zero wins since the start of 2025 — and only one set won. The 28-year-old just isn’t playing good tennis right now, making her a good player to fade. She’s actually just 5-32 on hard courts over the last four years, and she hasn’t won a hard-court match in 18 months. I’m just not willing to take Jones on her own, as the best available price is -189 on the moneyline. So, I’m parlaying her with Tiafoe to beat Muller.
Muller has been awesome since the start of 2025. I have had him quite a few times already, including in wins over Francisco Cerundolo and Francisco Comesana last week. However, I also made the decision to fade Muller in his final against Sebastian Baez in Rio de Janeiro, and the reason for that was that he looked absolutely gassed in his win over Comesana the match before. Well, Baez ended up earning a 6-2, 6-3 win over Muller, and I’m just not sure he has had enough time to get his body right since then. Muller will have had just two days to recover before taking on Tiafoe, and the conditions in Acapulco will make for tough, physical matches. That said, I feel good about taking this as the second leg. If Jones wins earlier in the day, perhaps I’ll look into taking Muller +1.5 sets for a potential middle.
PARLAY: Jones ML & Tiafoe ML (+100 – 1.5 units)
Petra Martic vs. Sloane Stephens – Merida
Stephens has lost her last nine matches, including three since the start of the 2025 season. We just haven’t seen a decent level from the American in quite some time, so I’m willing to deal with some juice to fade her. Martic just won two qualifying matches in straight sets, and that’s just a few weeks after a run to the quarterfinals in Linz in which she beat Eva Lys and Elina Avanesyan. Martic also put up a fight in her loss to Ekaterina Alexandrova.
Martic is just playing much better tennis than Stephens right now, so I’m willing to overlook the fact that the American is 3-0 in this head-to-head matchup. Stephens’ athleticism will always stand out when she’s on a court, but it’s relatively useless if she’s not avoiding high unforced error counts. Martic is going to test her rally tolerance and do her best to make her uncomfortable. Martic should also be the more reliable server here, even if Stephens’ serve can be a weapon when it’s on.
Bet: Martic ML (-154)
Additional Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success in the past. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day. My 250-level and Challenger-level action will live exclusively on the Pro Picks page.
