On Thursday, September 5th, Emma Navarro will look to continue her dream US Open run with a win over Aryna Sabalenka in the semifinals. Navarro, who is coming off wins over Marta Kostyuk, Coco Gauff and Paula Badosa, has beaten Sabalenka before. In fact, you only have to go back to March, as the American claimed a 6-3, 3-6, 6-2 win over the Belarusian at Indian Wells. However, Sabalenka got her revenge for that loss, earning a 6-2, 6-3 victory over Navarro at the French Open. And the Belarusian is a huge favorite in this match, which isn’t surprising considering how well she has played recently. With all of that in mind, we’re definitely in for an interesting match here. Keep reading for my Navarro vs. Sabalenka thoughts.
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2024 Record: 764-753 (+31.67 units)
Emma Navarro vs. Aryna Sabalenka Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish, but make sure you shop around!
Moneyline: Sabalenka -425, Navarro +320
Spread: Sabalenka -4.5 Games (-120), Navarro +4.5 Games (-110)
Total: Over 21.5 Games (-105), Under 21.5 Games (-125)
How To Watch Emma Navarro vs. Aryna Sabalenka
Where: Arthur Ashe Stadium in Flushing Meadows, New York
When: Scheduled for 4:30 pm ET on Thursday, September 5th
Channel: ESPN/ESPN+
Emma Navarro vs. Aryna Sabalenka Predictions
I’m not personally playing anything in this match. Sabalenka really should come away with a victory, but the pricing makes it hard to back her. In fact, if I was going to bet something here, I’d probably go with Navarro to win a set.
In the second set of her last match, Navarro really went into lockdown mode, focusing on getting everything back and forcing Badosa to make shots. The Spaniard ended up completely falling apart, piling up unforced errors at an outrageous clip. I don’t expect the same kind of meltdown from Sabalenka, but the Belarusian has struggled in this position before. When Sabalenka lost to Gauff in last year’s US Open final, the crowd got to the Belarusian and she made a lot of mistakes. Navarro will surely try and learn from that here. The crowd support might not be exactly the same, but the fans will be pulling for the American. So, when it comes to baseline play, Navarro will want to find the court as often as possible and hope Sabalenka’s level isn’t there.
Navarro also has to land first serves, and she certainly did that against Badosa. The American made 71.0% of her first serves in that match. Serving like that will give you a chance against anybody. But that’s especially true against a streaky server like Sabalenka. Navarro should have some chances to break here. Sabalenka’s serve is untouchable when she’s landing it in the box, but her accuracy comes and goes. She can also occasionally struggle with her second serve. On top of all of that, Navarro is a solid returner.
Navarro is also really good about staying calm in big matches. Playing in her first ever Grand Slam semi-final could test that. But it helps that there isn’t much expected of her in this matchup. Everybody thinks this match is going to go Sabalenka’s way, so Navarro should go out and play freely. That could be somewhat dangerous for Sabalenka, as Navarro has been hitting her forehand extremely well in Flushing Meadows.
Slight Lean: Navarro +1.5 Sets (+115)
