With Frances Tiafoe and Taylor Fritz meeting in the US Open semifinals, we’re guaranteed an American in the men’s final. This is an exciting time for American tennis. Unfortunately, one of these two beloved players is going to lose. Recent history suggests it’ll be Tiafoe, who has lost six consecutive matches against Fritz. However, Big Foe plays his best tennis at Arthur Ashe Stadium, so throwing out the history books isn’t crazy. Tiafoe nearly beat Carlos Alcaraz in the US Open semifinals as recently as two years ago. With all of that mind, how should you bet on this all-American affair? Keep reading to see how I’m playing Tiafoe vs. Fritz.
I also post more tennis predictions on the Pro Picks page. I occasionally add some picks throughout the day, as I like to see how odds are moving. So, keep checking that page every couple of hours if you want more of my picks. I’ll also post plays for smaller tournaments, like Challenger-level events, on that page.
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2024 Record: 766-758 (+25.88 units)
Frances Tiafoe vs. Taylor Fritz Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish, but make sure you shop around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Fritz -300, Tiafoe +225
Spread: Fritz -4.5 Games (+100), Tiafoe +4.5 Games (-125)
Total: Over 40.5 Games (-120), Under 40.5 Games (-110)
How To Watch Frances Tiafoe vs. Taylor Fritz
Where: Arthur Ashe Stadium in Flushing Meadows, New York
When: Friday, September 6th
Channel: ESPN/ESPN+
Frances Tiafoe vs. Taylor Fritz Predictions
If you know anybody betting on this match, it’s likely they’ll be on Tiafoe. Big Foe is the most popular American on tour, and it’s going to be hard for bettors to pass on him at odds north of +200. After all, Tiafoe is at his best on the biggest stages, and we have already seen him rise to the occasion in several matches at this US Open. However, Fritz is proving to be a big-match player himself. The 2022 Indian Wells champion has already scored wins over Matteo Berrettini, Casper Ruud and Alexander Zverev at this event. The Ruud and Zverev wins were especially impressive, as Fritz could have panicked after losing a set. He didn’t blink. Instead, he played the best tennis of his life, which is why it’s hard to turn away from him now.
Not only has Fritz earned six consecutive wins over Tiafoe, with one of those being a straight-set drubbing at the 2022 Australian Open, but the California native continues to get better and better. Once more of your prototypical big server, Fritz is now capable of really digging in from the baseline. He understands how to use his length on the court, he’s a bit more fluid as a mover and he’s extremely dangerous from both wings. All of that makes Fritz an even tougher matchup for Tiafoe than he was before. He won’t be sitting back and simply hoping Tiafoe gifts him opportunities to break. Fritz will be aggressive and earn himself those chances.
This season, Fritz’s hold percentage is up at 88.3%, which is good for seventh on the ATP Tour. Fritz’s break percentage is also 20.7% in 2024, which isn’t the greatest number in the world. However, it is better than Tiafoe’s 18.6%. And it’s hard to overlook an advantage in both serving and returning, especially when Fritz has the ability to outplay Tiafoe from the baseline.
From the back of the court, Fritz’s ability to generate pace with his forehand will rush Tiafoe when he goes cross court. Tiafoe has a very dangerous forehand himself, but it takes him some time to set up for it. I also give Fritz a slight edge in backhand-to-backhand exchanges. He just went head to head with Zverev, who has one of the best backhands in the world, and held his own from that wing.
Overall, I just think there are too many clear advantages for Fritz in this match, and I think he can be trusted to keep his cool and deliver yet another strong performance. Tiafoe undoubtedly has more creativity and flair, and he’s also the better mover between these two, which certainly counts for something. But Fritz’s game might be a little too big and polished, which is why I’m very comfortable laying some games.
Bet: Fritz -3.5 Games (-125 – 4.5 units … I added another 2.5 units to this Friday morning. This is my biggest play of the season.)
