The final major of the 2024 tennis season is officially here, as it’s time for the US Open. The singles draws for both the men and the women were released on Thursday, so it’s time to start breaking down the action we’ll see in Flushing Meadows, New York over the next few weeks. On the men’s side, Novak Djokovic is the defending champion and he’ll be searching for the 25th major of his career. Djokovic just won Olympic gold for the first time in his career, so he’s going to come to this event with some real confidence. However, Carlos Alcaraz has won the last two Grand Slam titles. He has also won the US Open before. Also, Jannik Sinner, the world No. 1, will feel good about his chances here. All in all, this has the potential to be a tremendous tournament, and I’ll be providing daily best bets throughout. But you should keep reading for my thoughts on the draw, and I’ll also provide some of my favorite US Open futures. Also, make sure you check out my US Open women’s betting preview.
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US Open Men’s Draw Analysis
Click here to see the 2024 US Open men’s draw!
Quarter 1: Sinner is the world No. 1 and the top seed in the tournament. The Italian also comes into this event after having won a Masters 1000 title in Cincinnati last week. However, it’s not all smooth sailing for the 23-year-old right now. It just came out that Sinner tested positive for Clostebol, a performance enhancing drug, earlier in the year. Sinner was cleared of any wrongdoing, as there wasn’t much in his system and his explanation checked out. But the Italian now enters this tournament with a dark cloud over his head, and his coaches say that he is emotionally drained from all of the noise. On top of that, Sinner has had some trouble staying healthy over the past couple of months. Whether it’s illness or a bad hip, he hasn’t looked comfortable on the court. That makes it hard to trust him in a best-of-five setting — especially with how humid it can get in New York.
As far as the draw goes, things aren’t terrible for Sinner. He likely won’t be truly tested until the fourth round, but that’s when he might see American Tommy Paul. That matchup could present all sorts of problems for him. Not only would the crowd be in Paul’s corner, but the American is an absolute grinder. His physicality could get the best of Sinner. And if it’s not Paul that trips Sinner up, don’t be surprised if it’s Daniil Medvedev in the quarterfinals. Medvedev hasn’t played his best tennis in recent months, but he’s as tough as anybody at this time of the year.
Overall, it’s a little hard to get on board with backing Sinner on the futures market. A couple of months ago, I would have pounced on Sinner at anything +300 or better, but he’s dealing with a lot on and off the court. That said, I like Paul or Medvedev to reach the semifinals.
Quarter 2: Alcaraz has to be pretty happy with his draw. The toughest potential opponents for him are Jack Draper, Alex De Minaur and Hubert Hurkacz. However, it’s hard to see any of them really threatening the Spaniard in New York. Draper got the better of Alcaraz when the two met on grass a couple of months ago, but these conditions favor the Spaniard quite a bit. The courts are actually playing much slower than usual this year, and that should help Alcaraz a ton. The Spaniard loves slower hard-court events, which is why he has won back-to-back Indian Wells titles. Alcaraz is also better suited to deal with the humidity in New York. Draper could struggle in the heat, if he even gets to play Alcaraz. Meanwhile, De Minaur lacks the weapons required to hit through Alcaraz, and the Australian is also coming off a significant injury. And Hurkacz’s serve has given Alcaraz trouble in the past, but the Pole isn’t too far removed from a serious knee injury. The court speeds will also allow Alcaraz to pick that serve up easier. It’d be shocking if Alcaraz doesn’t make the semis.
Quarter 3: A lot of people view this as the quarter of opportunity. I’m extremely high on Alexander Zverev heading into this event, but this is still the section of the draw in which a long shot has a real chance. It’s just loaded with talent and potential blockbuster matchups. This one quarter contains Zverev, Casper Ruud, Matteo Berrettini, Ugo Humbert, Taylor Fritz, Holger Rune, Francisco Cerundolo and Lorenzo Musetti. All of those players are capable of beating one another when they’re on their games. Berrettini is the most interesting flier for me. The Italian is playing the best tennis he has played since 2021 and 2022, when he reached as high as No. 6 in the world. Almost all of his serving numbers are right on par with that career year, and this is a guy that has been a Grand Slam runner-up. Bad luck in the health department is what has held the Italian back, but he’s feeling good entering this tournament. So, you can’t rule out a deep run.
I still think Zverev will find a way here. There are some potential landmines along the way, but Zverev is pretty easily the fourth-best player on the planet. And he’s not as far from the top tier of Sinner, Alcaraz and Djokovic as people might think. If the German is playing well, he should be able to outlast any of the players in his draw in a best-of-five match.
Quarter 4: Djokovic won’t have to deal with as much high-end talent as Sinner or Alcaraz. However, we haven’t seen the Serbian play since the Olympics and he’s going to be tested early. Djokovic could see Jan-Lennard Struff in the second round, Alexei Popyrin in the third and either Ben Shelton or Frances Tiafoe in the fourth. That’s a bunch of massive servers that won’t allow the 24-time Grand Slam champion to ease his way into this event. I ultimately think Djokovic will be fine. He’s back to serving at a high level. The serve was the major problem early in the year. And if he gets to tiebreakers against any of those players, he’ll prevail in the end. Djokovic is the best tiebreaker player in the history of the sport.
One player to keep an eye on in Quarter 4 is Jiri Lehecka. The Czech missed significant time after suffering an injury in Madrid, but he’s back and looked good in Cincinnati. Lehecka beat Medvedev in straight sets in the Round of 32 and then choked away his match against Tiafoe in the Round of 16. If the crowd wasn’t strongly urging Tiafoe on, Lehecka probably wins that match. And overall, his big serve and all-court power along the baseline make him a good fit for the courts in New York. I think we’ll see him in the fourth round and I don’t think it’s crazy to expect him in the quarterfinals.
US Open Futures
Alexander Zverev To Win (12-1): I grabbed Zverev to win the tournament at 12-1 before the draw, but I’d probably still play it at anything better than 10-1. I know that Zverev got dealt a pretty brutal road, but he’s a proven best-of-five performer and should really enjoy the conditions in New York. Zverev’s serve is essentially surface-proof, as he unleashes that thing and regularly hits his spots. So, Zverev should have no trouble holding, even with the tournament playing slower than usual. But the slower speeds and higher bounces will help him a ton as a returner and baseliner. Zverev’s backhand is one of the biggest weapons on tour, so he’ll rip that thing no matter where it bounces. But he needs a little time to load up his forehand. Well, given how things looked in qualifying, Zverev will have that time.
I’d just be pretty surprised if Zverev doesn’t find his way into the semifinals. At that point, you’ll want to be holding a ticket. Beating Djokovic might be tough, but Zverev is capable of doing it in this venue. He has also beaten Alcaraz on hard courts at majors before, and I don’t think he’ll have to worry about facing Sinner.
Jiri Lehecka To Win Quarter 4 (25-1 – 0.25 units): I went into it in the Quarter 4 breakdown, but I don’t hate Lehecka’s path here. With his big serve and ability to obliterate the ball from the baseline, he’s going to be very difficult to eliminate. And overall, his draw isn’t that bad until he runs into Andrey Rublev in the third round. I’d like Lehecka to win that match, even though Rublev has played better in recent weeks. I also like Lehecka’s chances in a potential fourth-round meeting with Grigor Dimitrov. That’s enough to make 25-1 a good value grab. Lehecka would obviously have his work cut out for him in a potential quarter-final meeting with Djokovic, but you’d be able to hedge and guarantee a profit at that point. You could also let it ride and hope he catches Djokovic during the day. The Serbian plays his worst tennis when it’s sunny and humid, so he’d be going through it against a player with Lehecka’s weapons.
