On Tuesday, August 27th, we’ll get to soak in some incredible matches for Day 2 of the 2024 US Open, the final major of the tennis season. This event takes place in Flushing Meadows, New York, which is the home of the iconic Arthur Ashe Stadium. The action at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center should be exciting, as this is the last chance for the top players in the world to really make a mark on the season. And the awesome thing about this year’s tournament is that we have some excellent early-round matches.
As always, I’ll be giving out tennis best bets throughout the course of the event. With that in mind, make sure you keep reading for my US Open predictions for the opening day of competition.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2024 Record: 727-722 (+25.80 units)
Ena Shibahara vs. Daria Saville
Shibahara is coming off an impressive run through qualifying. She beat Katarina Zavatska in a tight three-set match, won the first set and was up 4-1 in the second against Francesca Jones before the Brit retired, and she then outlasted Arianne Hartono in another tough three-setter. Shibahara has now won four of her last five matches, with all of them coming on hard courts. Meanwhile, Saville hasn’t played a match since losing to Marta Kostyuk in Wimbledon. So, not only will Saville be dealing with rust here, but she’s also playing on a new surface.
I’m not going to play Shibahara to win outright, as I think Saville will get better as the match progresses. But I’m taking a shot on the 26-year-old to win the opening set. Shibahara will likely be a little nervous on this big stage, but she has also gotten plenty comfortable in these conditions. She should be a lot sharper than her opponent out the gate, making this worthy of a play at plus-money odds.
Bet: Shibahara To Win Set 1 (+120)
Thanasi Kokkinakis vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas
Tsitsipas is a bit of a nightmare right now. The Greek star just fired his dad as his coach. The two had always had an odd working relationship, as his father was very tough on him. But things finally got out of hand and Tsitsipas decided he needed to move on. That leaves Tsitsipas in a weird spot heading into the end of the year. But as things stand, he has lost three of his last four matches. And one of those was an unacceptable loss to Kei Nishikori, who is very much over the hill.
Tsitsipas’ serve hasn’t been as dangerous in 2024 as it was in previous years, as his 86.0% hold percentage is the lowest it has been since 2019. He’s also misfiring from the forehand side more than usual. That’s especially alarming considering that was one of the most dangerous shots in the sport for years, and his power from the forehand wing made up for his miserable backhand. On top of all of that, Tsitsipas’ break percentage on hard courts is just 19.2% over the last 52 weeks. That’s going to make it hard for him to handle Kokkinakis, who has a booming first serve.
Kokkinakis is also playing some good tennis coming into this match, as he is 5-2 in his last seven outings. One of the losses was a match in which he retired against Sebastian Korda after choking away a victory. He had an easy forehand to put the match away and he messed it up, and then he unraveled from there. He also lost a tight three-set match against Hubert Hurkacz in Montreal, and there is absolutely no shame in that.
Overall, I just don’t see much preventing Kokkinakis from keeping this match close. In fact, the last time these two met was at the Australian Open, when Tsitsipas earned a 6-7 (5), 6-4, 6-1, 6-7 (5), 6-4 win. That was an absolute war and it took place when Tsitsipas was at the peak of his powers. This time around, Kokkinakis should be able to make things even closer, and I actually think he has a decent shot at winning.
Even if Tsitsipas does end up winning this match, he’s a player you should be looking to fade this week.
Bet: Kokkinakis +4.5 Games (-120 – 1.5 units) + Kokkinakis ML (+245 – 0.5 units)
Destanee Aiava vs. Elena Rybakina
Rybakina lost her first match in Cincinnati against Leylah Fernandez, and that was a disappointing result for the world No. 4. Rybakina was also playing her first match in nearly a month at that point, and it just feels like she hasn’t been able to establish a rhythm all year. Rybakina’s record in 2024 is still stellar, but the stop-and-start nature of her season makes her hard to trust when it comes to covering a big spread. That’s why I’m playing Aiava to cover a 7.5-game spread.
Aiava is another player that had to come through qualifying, and she did so by earning some solid wins. The most impressive of the bunch was a straight-set win over Ana Konjuh, who’s a former world No. 20. Honestly, Aiava has weapons that can make anybody uncomfortable when she’s hitting her spots. The biggest one is a booming forehand, which she should swing freely on here because she has nothing to lose in this match. But overall, this is really just a fade on Rybakina, who can convincingly win this match and still fail to cover.
With 7.5 games, Aiava can lose 6-3, 6-2 and still cover this spread. However, don’t be surprised if she puts a bigger scare in Rybakina than that. Not only has Rybakina been inconsistent in staying on the court this year, but she also just fired Stefano Vukov. The coach played a big role in Rybakina reaching the top of the women’s game, so it might be an adjustment for her to play without him.
Bet: Aiava +7.5 Games (-127 – 1.5 units)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action. That’s also where I put my Challenger-level plays, as well as picks for lower level ATP and WTA events.
