The final major of the 2024 tennis season is here, as we’re already about a week into the US Open. The competition in Flushing Meadows has been fierce, as the top players in the world are hoping for one last big result at a Grand Slam. With that in mind, I’ll be handicapping all of the action over the next week or so. That continues with my Day 9 tennis predictions and best bets for Tuesday, September 3rd. Keep reading for some of my favorite selections for this loaded slate, but don’t stop there. Gill Alexander will be posting his best bets on the VSiN picks page daily, and I’ll also be adding some additional plays there.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2024 Record: 759-748 (+32.21 units)
Paula Badosa vs. Emma Navarro
I won’t personally be playing this match, as I already have Badosa to win her quarter. If you ended up tailing that play, it definitely makes sense to hedge a little with Navarro available at plus-money odds. However, I really like Badosa to win this match, so I’m adding this as a strong lean and will count it when tallying my record.
Badosa is a much better server than Navarro, as her hard-court hold percentage is 75.3% over the last 52 weeks. Navarro’s is down below 70.0%. That could ultimately be the difference maker in this match, as these are quick courts and Badosa should have an easier time taking advantage of that.
Badosa should also feel pretty confident heading into this one. She beat Navarro when the two met in Rome earlier in the year, when she wasn’t playing nearly as well as she is now. Badosa has won 14 of her last 16 matches, looking unbeatable since the start of the North American hard-court swing.
I also like that the betting public will be all over Navarro after her win over Coco Gauff last round. That version of Gauff shouldn’t be a measuring stick. She had 60 unforced errors and couldn’t put any of her serves in. So, it’d be a mistake to consider that match when looking at these odds. Badosa is the better player and should probably be favored even more.
Strong Lean: Badosa ML (-125)
Frances Tiafoe vs. Grigor Dimitrov
Tiafoe is going to be another trendy underdog on Tuesday. Everybody wants to back the American at this tournament, and it’s hard to argue with them. He’s an exciting player to watch, he gets the crowd involved and he genuinely does up his level on the biggest stages. But Tiafoe got absolutely demolished by Dimitrov when these two met at Wimbledon, and the Bulgarian’s average level is a lot higher than the American’s. So, if neither one of these players comes out redlining, Dimitrov really should come away with the win.
Dimitrov’s hold percentage over the last 52 weeks is all the way up at 88.5% while Tiafoe’s is just 83.1%. In that same span, Dimitrov’s break percentage is also 21.0% compared to Tiafoe’s 17.0%. There’s just not a lot that suggests Dimitrov should be anything but a massive favorite here, but you don’t have to lay a lot of juice to back him because of the New York crowd.
Even Dimitrov’s baseline game can cause problems for Tiafoe. The Bulgarian’s backhand slice should keep Tiafoe from getting comfortable here, and Dimitrov’s net game will also be a big factor.
The only thing that really concerns me heading into this match is that Dimitrov did look a little tired towards the end of his five-set match against Andrey Rublev. But Tiafoe has also had to work his tail off in this tournament, so the American might not have an advantage in freshness.
Bet: Dimitrov ML (-143 – 1.5 units)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action. That’s also where I put my Challenger-level plays, as well as picks for lower level ATP and WTA events.
