The final major of the 2024 tennis season is officially here, as it’s time for the US Open. The singles draws for both the men and the women were released on Thursday, so it’s time to start breaking down the action we’ll see in Flushing Meadows over the next few weeks. On the women’s side, Coco Gauff enters this tournament as the defending champion. The American has been playing some horrible tennis lately, but she’ll be hoping that the New York crowd can change her fortunes. As far as the betting favorite goes, that would be Aryna Sabalenka. The Belarusian just won a 1000-level tournament in Cincinnati, and she is widely viewed as the best hard-court player in the world. However, Iga Swiatek and Elena Rybakina will have something to say about that. Swiatek has won this tournament before and has largely dominated women’s tennis for years. And a lot of that brilliance came on hard courts. With all of that in mind, we’re in for a fun two weeks of tennis. Keep reading for my thoughts on the draw. I’ll also provide some of my favorite US Open futures. Also, make sure you check out my men’s betting preview here.
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US Open Women’s Draw Analysis
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Quarter 1: Swiatek won’t have much of a problem navigating her first few rounds. However, a potential meeting with Mirra Andreeva or Liudmila Samsonova in the fourth round can be challenging. Andreeva just gave Swiatek everything she can handle in Cincinnati. The teenager is going to win her first major relatively soon, as her forehand is starting to come around. That was once her big weakness. But Swiatek would probably like her chances against her. Andreeva played about as well as she could in that Cincinnati match, but it still wasn’t good enough. I’d be surprised if Andreeva can match the aggression and continue to find the court. But Samsonova has the baseline power required to rush Swiatek, and that’s how you make the Pole uncomfortable in these conditions. Also, Swiatek’s potential quarter-final opponents are tough. Whether it’s Danielle Collins, Diana Shnaider or Jessica Pegula, Swiatek will be in for a fight. I strongly believe Swiatek is the best player on tour, but I don’t think she’s going to make it out of the quarter.
Quarter 2: Rybakina is the top seed in Quarter 2, but she hasn’t consistently been on the court and she just parted ways with her coach. With that in mind, this section seems pretty open. Beatriz Haddad Maia, Anna Kalinskaya, Jelena Ostapenko, Naomi Osaka, Leylah Fernandez, Yulia Putintseva and Jasmine Paolini are some of the names you’ll hear to come out of this quarter. However, I think Karolina Muchova has a shot. Muchova is arguably a top-10 talent on the WTA Tour, but she has battled injuries in the last year. But Muchova is pretty healthy at this point in the season, so I think she’s worth keeping an eye on. It’s also hard not to like Paolini, who has been the runner-up at back-to-back Grand Slams and always seems to have the crowd in her corner.
Quarter 3: This is another quarter that people will look to attack, as Gauff is the top seed in this section. Gauff has been a disaster in recent months. Not only has she failed to fix her forehand, but her serve has also been a problem. There’s a chance the environment helps her make a deep run, as Gauff is capable of playing world-class defense and the crowd can make her opponents miss. But it’s hard to be comfortable backing her right now. I actually think this quarter will end up going to Paula Badosa or Marta Kostyuk, two players with big games and a lot of confidence. Badosa is the better bet of the two, though. She has been playing incredible lately, and her draw is extremely favorable.
Quarter 4: This is the most straightforward quarter I have seen for either the men or women. Sabalenka is the top-seeded player in Quarter 4 and it’s really hard to imagine her losing to anybody early on. In fact, I don’t think anybody can challenge Sabalenka before the quarterfinals, where she’d likely face Qinwen Zheng or Amanda Anisimova. So, if you’re looking to play anybody to win this quarter, it might be worth biting the bullet with the juice and playing the Belarusian. However, I do think Anisimova has a real shot at making a deep run. She just needs to find a way by Zheng, who just won Olympic gold.
US Open Futures
Jessica Pegula To Win (12-1): This might be the recency bias talking, but how can you not like Pegula right now? Everything we’ve seen over the last three weeks suggests Pegula should be priced a little closer to players like Swiatek, Sabalenka, Rybakina and Gauff. She just won a massive title in Toronto and then played Sabalenka tough in the Cincinnati final. Pegula’s quick, compact strokes make her a great fit for hard courts. She doesn’t need much time to generate power from either wing and she keeps her shots flat. Pegula has also improved as a server as the year has progressed, and she’s already a dangerous returner. I know that Pegula’s Grand Slam history makes it hard to trust her, but she’ll eventually break through if she gives herself enough bites at the apple. And I’m not sure she has ever entered a major in this type of form. I also love that she’s in Swiatek’s half of the bracket and not Sabalenka’s. This version of Pegula will be a problem for a struggling Swiatek. And as long as Pegula sets up a final with Sabalenka, we’ll find a way to turn this ticket into some money.
Karolina Muchova To Win Quarter 2 (10-1 – 0.25 units): I’m not going to put a lot on Muchova to win her quarter, as it’s definitely a bit of a long shot and I don’t even love the odds. But I do want to put a little money where my mouth is. I just don’t think there’s anybody in this quarter that realistically has a much better shot than she does of reaching the semifinals. Rybakina is too hard to trust right now and Muchova will like her chances against everybody else.
Paula Badosa To Win Quarter 3 (+550 – 1.5 units): Badosa isn’t quite as hot as Pegula right now, but the Spaniard has been playing some excellent tennis. Badosa won a title in Washington D.C. and then went to the semifinals in Cincinnati. And overall, she’s playing the type of tennis that once made her the world No. 2. When you combine that with the fact that she’s in the weakest portion of the draw, it’s just hard not to like Badosa to get to the semifinals. I also wouldn’t hate a play on Badosa to win it all. If it gets to 50-1 or better, I’ll sprinkle a little something on it.
