Tennis best bets for Wimbledon – Monday, July 10th
Wimbledon is the third major of the tennis season and it’s arguably the most prestigious of the four. The All England Club in London, England is one of the most beautiful venues that the sport has to offer, and the exclusive nature of grass-court tennis gives it a different feel than the rest. With that out of the way, I’m hoping to continue dishing out winners over the next seven days, so make sure you keep reading for my tennis best bets for Monday, July 10th.
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Christopher Eubanks vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas
Eubanks’ grass-court run has been remarkable to watch. The American has really come from out of nowhere to win 13 of his last 16 matches, and the run includes a title in Mallorca and a win over Cameron Norrie here. His form is just tremendous at the moment, and his big serve gives him a chance to win almost every match he plays. But I think he’ll run out of juice against Tsitsipas.
One of the advantages Eubanks has had over all his previous opponents is that he can go bigger with his serve, but it’s hard to say he’s a better server than Tsitsipas. The Greek star has a lot of pop on his first serve, but he also seems to hit his spots whenever he needs to. With that in mind, I don’t see Eubanks coming up with many breaks in this match. But Tsitsipas should be able to get some looks at Eubanks’ serve. The American is going to be dealing with some nerves in this match, and I think Tsitsipas will be able to take advantage.
This is also just a match in which Tsitsipas’ edge from the baseline will be enormous. He’s going to win a large majority of all extended rallies, which is why I feel comfortable paying a pretty big price for a 2.5-game spread. The -3.5 isn’t a bad option but I would hate to lose this play because of a few tiebreakers.
Bet: Tsitsipas -2.5 Games (-160)
Petra Kvitova vs. Ons Jabeur
Kvitova was one of my favorite pre-tournament bets to win this event, so this is a matchup that I already liked for the Czech. Kvitova is 4-1 in her five career meetings with Jabeur, so she has had a lot of success against the Tunisian already. One of those wins actually came at Wimbledon in 2019, when Kvitova earned a straight-set victory. It was relatively lopsided as well, with Kvitova winning 6-4, 6-2. Kvitova also happened to win in three sets in their most recent meeting, which came in Cincinnati last August.
On top of having the head-to-head edge over Jabeur, Kvitova is just the better grass-court player than her opponent. Her combination of power from the baseline and a rock-solid serve is just perfect for quick conditions. Jabeur’s tricky slice shots might catch Kvitova off guard a couple of times. But overall, I like Kvitova’s flat, powerful strokes to help her prevail here.
Bet: Kvitova ML (-135)
Grigor Dimitrov vs. Holger Rune
Rune was one of my picks to win this quarter, as I just loved the value on an elite player to figure out the grass and find a way to put a run together. But this was always a matchup that scared me a bit, and everything we’ve seen thus far suggests this should go the way of the Bulgarian. Dimitrov has simply looked like one of the top players in London this week, as he’s through to the fourth round without dropping a single set.
Dimitrov should also have a significant edge in the rest department here, which is especially important when you factor in that Rune has had some fatigue issues at majors in the past. But Dimitrov won his last match in less than two hours, while Rune needed three hours and 58 minutes to defeat Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. I wouldn’t be surprised if Rune is feeling it physically at some point later in this match.
I also just love the way Dimitrov is using his backhand at this tournament. He is very effective with his slice backhand, which is a huge asset on grass. And he is even sprinkling in some bigger shots from the backhand side, which is a very good sign. He has had some stretches this season in which he has been afraid to go for flatter shots from that side of the court.
This is also just a match in which everybody will be betting Rune. You normally want to be on the opposite side in situations like this.
Bet: Dimitrov ML (-145)
Added Play
Carlos Alcaraz -2.5 Games (-140 – 2 units) vs. Matteo Berrettini: Berrettini looks like he is fully back in form right now, but I think he’ll run into some problems with Alcaraz. This isn’t the Spaniard’s best surface or anything, but he’s still a far better baseline player than Berrettini. That’s going to make a difference at some point in this match. Alcaraz also just had the luxury of facing Nicolas Jarry, who is not that different from Berrettini. Both players are bigger guys with huge serves and booming forehands. So, Alcaraz just had a crash course in what it takes to beat a guy like this. I think this match will be pretty competitive throughout, but I like Alcaraz to cover a small game spread. And I’m putting a little more on this.
