It’s starting to seem like 24-time Grand Slam champion and seven-time Wimbledon champion Novak Djokovic is going to compete at the All England Club. Just three weeks ago, Djokovic underwent a successful surgery to repair the torn meniscus in his right knee. He had played on that faulty knee at the French Open, where he withdrew from the tournament after a five-set win over Francisco Cerundolo in the fourth round. When news came out that Djokovic needed surgery, the thought of him playing in Wimbledon seemed outrageous. But Djokovic has proven that his body works differently than others, and he has done so time and time again. Now, DraftKings Sportsbook has the 37-year-old at +400 to win this tournament. Considering his history in London, that might seem pretty tempting.
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There’s no denying that Djokovic has a better understanding of how to win matches on grass than anybody in the field. He’s one of the best grass-court players in the history of the sport. However, there’s no telling where Djokovic will be physically. This was originally viewed as an injury that would put Djokovic on the shelf for 4-6 weeks. The Serbian cut that down to three weeks. In terms of getting back on a practice court, that isn’t crazy. But Djokovic now needs to compete against some of the best players in the world. Doing so on a knee that might not be at 100%, while also not having time to properly train, will make things difficult on Djokovic.
It’s also not like Djokovic was playing the most inspiring tennis in the world before all of this. Sure, nobody actually eliminated Djokovic at Roland Garros. But the Serbian had more trouble than expected with Lorenzo Musetti and Cerundolo in the third and fourth rounds. He also lost to Tomas Machac in the semifinals of the Geneva Open, a very small event, a week before. Djokovic is now just 18-7 on the season, which is good for a winning percentage of only 72.0%. That’s the lowest winning percentage he has had since the 2006 season. He also hasn’t won a title since the start of 2024, which almost seems impossible given his pedigree.
Djokovic’s serve has been a big part of this mini-slump. His hold percentage is down at 82.7% this year, which is the lowest mark he has had since 2010. That’s going to make it harder on him to win at Wimbledon, where racking up easy holds is extremely important. And I’m skeptical about whether or not Djokovic will figure things out with the ball on his racquet. He parted ways with Goran Ivanisevic earlier in the year. That’s the coach that was credited with getting Djokovic’s serve to the next level.
If Djokovic was playing a bit better, it’d be an easy decision to jump on him at +400 odds here. But I think the 37-year-old needs some time to ramp up. I also think that playing this event is a mistake. Djokovic has never won Olympic gold, so I would have preferred to see him head right to clay courts for practice. Playing two weeks on grass at less than 100% almost feels like a distraction that he doesn’t need right now — even if this is the most prestigious major of them all. Grass is also an easy surface to fall on, as the courts can be extremely slippery. So, hopefully Djokovic doesn’t end up taking a spill that causes him to miss even more time.
All in all, I’m not as down on Djokovic’s long-term outlook as others. I think we’ll probably see the 24-time Grand Slam champion add another trophy to his display at some point. But there are better places to put your money in this specific event.
