On Wednesday, July 3rd, fans in Italy will be keeping a close eye on the meeting between Jannik Sinner and Matteo Berrettini in the second round of Wimbledon. Of course, this is a match that everybody on the planet can enjoy. But the fact that it’s an all-Italian showdown definitely adds a little intrigue. Sinner, who is the world No. 1, has already won a Grand Slam title this year, as he emerged victorious at the Australian Open. However, many people view Sinner as the favorite to take home his first trophy at the All England Club. The problem is that Sinner does have a very difficult draw, and this matchup is one that could get interesting. Berrettini is a former world No. 6 and was the runner-up at Wimbledon in 2021. He’s a dangerous grass-court player and Sinner needs to take him very seriously. With all of that in mind, keep reading for a betting preview of Sinner vs. Berrettini.
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Jannik Sinner vs. Matteo Berrettini Odds
Moneyline: Sinner -525, Berrettini +390
Spread: Sinner -4.5 Games (-135), Berrettini +4.5 Games (+110)
Total: Over 38.5 (-115) / Under 38.5 (-110)
How To Watch Jannik Sinner vs. Matteo Berrettini
Where: All England Club in London, England
When: Scheduled for 12:00 pm ET on Wednesday, July 3rd
Channel: ESPN/ESPN+
Jannik Sinner vs. Matteo Berrettini Predictions
In my Wimbledon betting preview, I noted that I like Sinner to ultimately win this tournament. However, I didn’t want to play him on the futures market, as the number was too short for a player with his draw. And this is a matchup in which Sinner can definitely get tripped up. There’s no denying that Sinner has a game that is perfectly suited for grass, as he’s first in the world in hold percentage over the last 52 weeks and is just about top five in the world when it comes to break percentage in that span. On top of that, Sinner has more power from the baseline than anybody, but he also has the ability to glide around the court. Also, Sinner has played well in London before. He just ran into Novak Djokovic in each of the last two years, and he played him close in two losses. Now, Sinner would like his chances against the 24-time Grand Slam champion. But Sinner’s grass-court prowess is still somewhat theoretical at this point. Berrettini is minted on this surface.
Berrettini has dealt with injuries over the last few years, making it hard for him to hold a consistent spot in the rankings. But whenever the 28-year-old is healthy, he’s a very tough player to eliminate. That can be said on all three surfaces, but Berrettini is a special player on grass. In his career, Berrettini is 42-11 on this surface and he has a 91.4% hold percentage. He simply hits bombs with the ball on his racquet, and his baseline game is a nice fit for this surface too. Berrettini has one of the biggest forehands on the ATP Tour, and his backhand isn’t much of a weakness on grass. The latter is a shot that can occasionally give him trouble, but he simply slices the ball on grass and gets it low in the court. That forces opponents to get down and dig it out, and that generally sets up a situation in which Berrettini can hunt for his forehand.
Of course, Sinner should find a way to prevail here. He’s one of the few players on the planet that can come close to matching Berrettini’s ability as a server, and the 22-year-old does have an edge from the baseline. At some point, that is likely going to make a difference and help the world No. 1 to advance. But I just don’t see Sinner winning this match in straight sets. Berrettini is fourth in the world in raw grass-court Elo rating, putting him right behind Sinner in the rankings. This is about as tough of a matchup as you can possibly draw early in an event, and this match should feature some lengthy sets. If that’s the case, it’s hard to imagine a scenario in which Berrettini won’t claim one of them. The 28-year-old should also have a serious chip on his shoulder here, as he likely wants to show the world that he’s not too far behind his fellow countryman.
Bet: Berrettini +2.5 Sets (-175)
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