Wimbledon predictions and best bets for Day 5 – July 5th:
The short grass-court season is already nearing its end, as we’re already a week into Wimbledon. The start of this tournament has been exciting, but things are only getting more interesting from here. That said, let’s look at Day 5 of the action at the All England Club, which will take place on Friday, July 5th. Keep reading for some of my favorite picks for a day that will have stars like Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner and Coco Gauff in action.
I also post more tennis predictions on the Pro Picks page. I occasionally add some picks throughout the day, as I like to see how odds are moving. So, keep checking that page every couple of hours if you want more of my picks. I’ll also post plays for smaller tournaments on that page.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2024 Record: 472-475 (+31.18 units)
Paula Badosa vs. Daria Kasatkina
Kasatkina was able to secure a title in Eastbourne last week, earning wins over Xinyu Wang, Yue Yuan, Emma Raducanu, Jasmine Paolini and Leylah Fernandez. It was a really impressive week for the talented Russian, who has also won her first two matches at the All England Club in straight sets. The problem is that Kasatkina now faces a red-hot Badosa, who is 4-1 on grass this season and has looked tremendous in London thus far. Badosa was an underdog in her opening-round match against Karolina Muchova, but the Spaniard earned a 6-3, 6-2 in that one. She then got by Brenda Fruhvirtova in a 6-4, 6-2 win in the next round. Badosa is simply looking healthy at the moment, and she’s as good as anybody in the top 10 when she’s able to freely play her game. For that reason, I’m backing Badosa as an underdog here.
Badosa has shown that she can beat Kasatkina before, as she has won two of the four matches between them. Badosa also happened to win 6-1, 6-1 when they met in Stuttgart last year, giving her a decisive win in the most recent meeting between them. That makes it a little hard to figure out why Badosa is available at such a favorable number, but I’m not going to think twice about this. Kasatkina might have Badosa beat by a little when it comes to baseline play, as she has a little more variety than the Spaniard. But Badosa counters that with a much better serve than her opponent. That’s hard to ignore in a grass-court setting.
Bet: Badosa ML (+146)
Denis Shapovalov vs. Ben Shelton
I was on the wrong side of Shelton’s last match, as I backed Lloyd Harris to beat him. That ended up being an absurdly competitive five-set match, and it really could have gone either way. But Shelton dug deep in the fifth-set tiebreaker and was able to get through. Overall, it was an impressive showing from the American, who has now made the third round of all four majors. That’s rare for a player that is only 21 years old. However, I do still find myself wanting more from Shelton on grass. The serve is a massive weapon anywhere, but he’s still a bit vulnerable once actual rallies begin. He’s also just not much of a threat as a returner. That said, I don’t really see why Shelton is a betting favorite against Shapovalov, who has won a good amount of matches on this surface and actually made the semifinals at Wimbledon in 2021.
Shapovalov is a player that can be very difficult to back, as he does tend to give his opponents opportunities. Shapovalov is capable of losing focus for very short periods of time, and those mental lapses tend to doom him. But Shapovalov is going to be up for this match. He has undoubtedly heard all the hype surrounding Shelton, and he’s going to want to show the world that he’s the better player here. Ultimately, I think Shapovalov will get the job done. Both of these guys are tough to break, but Shapovalov is a little better away from the serve. That should matter eventually.
Bet: Shapovalov ML (+134 – 1.5 units)
Frances Tiafoe vs. Carlos Alcaraz
Alcaraz is the defending Wimbledon champion and also happened to win the French Open last month. So, it’s probably a little weird that I haven’t been impressed with him lately. But it is possible to win matches without playing your best tennis, and that’s precisely what Alcaraz has done. But it’s going to be hard for him to cover big game spreads as he starts facing better competition, and Tiafoe definitely represents a jump in talent level from what Alcaraz saw in the first two rounds. So, I’m playing the American to cover this massive game spread.
These two obviously played a very close match at the 2022 US Open, when Alcaraz stopped Tiafoe’s dream run and then went on to win his first major. And I can see this being another highly competitive battle. Tiafoe isn’t a big player, but he does play like one. He has a very big serve and the ability to consistently win points at the net. That makes him a good fit for grass, and it should make it hard for Alcaraz to wipe the court with him. If Tiafoe does his job as a server, he’s going to play his way deep into sets. And I honestly think there’s a chance he wins one or two. Alcaraz should eventually earn a win because he is a better all-around player, but the Spaniard can occasionally play with his food. He did it in the first two rounds. And he’s still not a very reliable server.
Tiafoe is also a player that really likes playing in big matches. He loves a good atmosphere and he will want to put on a show here. So, even though Tiafoe hasn’t had a great 2024 season, I think he’ll turn some heads in this one. He has looked extremely sharp early in this tournament.
Bet: Tiafoe +7.5 Games (-141 – 1.5 units)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
