Wimbledon predictions and best bets for Day 4 – July 4th:
The short grass-court season is already nearing its end, as it’s already time for Wimbledon. I already did some pre-tournament analysis of both the men’s and women’s draws. However, it’s now time to look at Day 4 of the action at the All England Club, which will take place on Thursday, July 4th. Keep reading for some of my favorite picks for a day that will have stars like Novak Djokovic and Iga Swiatek in action.
I usually have a lot more tennis predictions on the Pro Picks page. I occasionally add some picks throughout the day, as schedules can get wonky with the international nature of the sport. I also like to see how odds are moving. That said, keep checking that page every couple of hours if you want more of my picks. I’ll also post plays for smaller tournaments on that page.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2024 Record: 458-467 (+25.81 units)
Katerina Siniakova vs. Yulia Putintseva
It’s no secret that I am really high on Siniakova’s grass-court game. I have been backing her pretty frequently over the last couple of weeks, and I threw a small dart on her to reach the final of this event. Siniakova is just a very good player on this surface, where her doubles background really shines through. Siniakova is a player with real finishing power, as she plays an aggressive game from the baseline and also likes to play at the net. Siniakova is also extremely mobile along the baseline. That said, it was an easy decision for me to take her against Putintseva. I know that Putintseva won a grass-court event this season, but this isn’t a surface in which players like her tend to succeed. So, while Putintseva was able to take advantage of lesser players in Birmingham, I don’t see it happening against Siniakova. Putintseva is a counter-puncher that will fight until the end of every point. But I don’t think that will be enough against Siniakova. And I expect Siniakova’s return game to be big here.
Bet: Siniakova ML (-125 – 1.5 units)
Emil Ruusuvuori vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas
There’s really no reason Tsitsipas shouldn’t be good on grass. The world No. 11 has one of the biggest serves on the planet, and he’s mobile for a player that holds as easily as he does. On top of that, Tsitsipas has one of the best forehands on the ATP Tour. With that in mind, he should be able to bully opponents the way that Matteo Berrettini does. However, something hasn’t clicked for Tsitsipas on this surface. He’s just 22-17 on grass in his career, and his serve isn’t the can’t-miss weapon that it should be. With that in mind, I find it hard to believe that Tsitsipas will beat Ruusuvuori in straight sets. But I also trust the Greek star to win one of his own. So, I’m playing the Over on the 3.5-set total in this match.
It’s just hard to overlook the fact that Tsitsipas had quite a bit of trouble against Taro Daniel last round. Tsitsipas ended up earning a 7-6 (5), 6-4, 7-5 win in that match, but Ruusuvuori should be able to capitalize on opportunities that Daniel couldn’t. Ruusuvuori is a player with a lot of baseline power and overall talent. He’s going to look like he belongs on the court with Tsitsipas, and that should translate to a match that goes four or five sets.
Bet: Over 3.5 Sets (-120 – 1.5 units)
Cameron Norrie vs. Jack Draper
I took Facundo Diaz Acosta to cover 8.5 games against Norrie last round, but that was more because of the absurd game spread. Norrie is still a player that I’m generally pretty high on, and that’s especially true in a match like this. Norrie is going to come to the court with a real edge here, as he’s a big underdog against a younger player from his own country. That shouldn’t sit right with Norrie, even if Draper is a tremendous talent.
Draper is also coming into this match after a pretty lengthy grass-court season, and he also played a five-set match in the opening round. For a player with a history of fitness concerns, that’s somewhat alarming heading into a match that can easily go the distance. If this thing is decided late in the fourth set, or in a deciding fifth set, will Draper have the legs to finish the job? Norrie is going to force Draper to play a lot of extra balls to at least ask that question of him.
Norrie is also 2-0 against Draper at the ATP level, with both wins coming in straight sets. So, I’m taking the games here and I’m also sprinkling the moneyline. This is a nightmare of a draw for Draper.
Bet: Norrie +4.5 Games (-116 – 1.5 units) + Norrie ML (+235 – 0.5 units)
Marcos Giron vs. Alexander Zverev
Like Tsitsipas, Zverev is a player that should be dangerous on grass and the results haven’t been there. Zverev is just 13-7 at Wimbledon in his career, and his grass-court winning percentage is the lowest he has on any surface. Zverev is still one of the biggest servers in the world, and he does have the ability to get low and dig out some of the low-bouncing shots on these courts. But he’s definitely not as comfortable doing so on grass as he is elsewhere, and I think Giron should be able to give him a good match here.
Giron might be a smaller player, but he has a pretty big game. He hits some powerful, flat shots, allowing him to play quick-strike tennis. But he’s also a pretty solid defensive player, as he can get a lot of balls back but also rip winners from the forehand side when on the run. And the best part about Giron on grass is that the surface makes him a little more dangerous as a server. That should give him the ability to play with Zverev.
It’s also worth noting that Giron did take a set off Zverev when they met at the 2021 Australian Open, which was a match played on the fastest hard courts imaginable. So, I’m playing Giron to win a set at Wimbledon. The American is 5-3 on grass this season, with two of the losses being nail-biters against Draper and Hubert Hurkacz. There’s no shame in that. Giron should come into this thing with some confidence.
Bet: Giron +2.5 Sets (-123 – 1.5 units)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
