French Open best bets for Friday, May 31st
It’s time for the second major of this exciting 2024 tennis season, as the top ATP and WTA players in the world will be in Paris for the 2024 French Open. The action at Roland Garros should be stellar over the course of this fantastic tournament. I already went ahead and previewed some of the action in my French Open tournament preview, where I broke down the draws and gave out some of my favorite futures. But I’ll be doing my daily tennis best bets here. So, keep reading for some of my favorite plays for Day 6 of the French Open, which will be played on Friday, May 31st.
I’d also strongly suggest coming back to this story throughout the day. I try to write up as many matches as I can in advance, but it’s hard to do that in an international sport. I also like to throw in some Challenger-level bets. That said, I’ll probably be adding picks to the bottom of the story. I’ll also throw them on the Pro Picks page.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2024 Record: 329-346 (+24.04 units)
Matteo Arnaldi vs. Andrey Rublev
Zizou Bergs vs. Grigor Dimitrov
I’m putting a two-leg parlay in for Friday and it starts with Arnaldi covering an alternate 7.5-game spread against Rublev. There’s no denying that Rublev’s baseline power can be a problem for anybody. But Arnaldi also packs a good amount of punch, especially from the forehand side. And the Italian also happens to be wise beyond his years when it comes to point construction on clay, and I think he has a little more variety than Rublev. I also like that Arnaldi really works hard as a returner, so he’ll do everything he can to put pressure on the Rublev serve. The Russian is very good at a lot of different things, but serving is definitely somewhere he can struggle. Overall, that likely won’t amount to Arnaldi winning this match outright, but I think he can take a set or two. So, I feel pretty good about grabbing the games here.
For the second leg of this parlay, I’m playing Dimitrov to handle his business and defeat Bergs. I have actually been pretty impressed with Bergs’ play at the Challenger level this year, but I’m just not sure what he can do to make Dimitrov uncomfortable in this match. The Bulgarian probably has him cleared in every aspect of the game, and then you throw in the fact that he’s also far more experienced. That should give Dimitrov an edge in big points if any of the sets are close. Dimitrov also hasn’t dropped a set at this tournament, while Bergs has played tough matches against lesser opponents. On top of that, he had to go through qualifying to get here. So, Dimitrov’s body should be in better shape.
PARLAY: Arnaldi +7.5 Games + Dimitrov ML (-139 – 1.5 units)
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Ben Shelton
Auger-Aliassime made a run to the final in Madrid. Sure, luck played a pretty big role in that, but he nearly beat Andrey Rublev in the final. And overall, Auger-Aliassime is 42-36 on clay in his ATP career. He has also won two Challenger-level titles and made it to the final in another three of them. All in all, while Auger-Aliassime might prefer faster surfaces, he’s still very effective on clay. The same can’t be said about Shelton, who is unproven on the dirt. I know Shelton won a title in Houston last month, but the green clay in America is nothing like the European clay. Shelton is also just 8-10 on clay in his career and he didn’t play much on the Challenger level, so he hasn’t had the time that Auger-Aliassime has had on this surface.
Auger-Aliassime also has a break percentage of 23.7% on clay over the last 52 weeks, while Shelton’s is down at 17.4%. That ultimately should make a big difference. Both of these guys have tremendous serves, but Auger-Aliassime should do a little more damage as a returner. Auger-Aliassime has also been to the fourth round of the French Open before, so he should be able to settle himself down in key moments. Doing so could mean playing some smarter points and extending rallies to force misses out of Shelton, who is always trigger happy when going for winners.
Overall, I just see this as a match that the Canadian should win. Shelton is going to have moments on clay, but he needs more experience on the surface before that happens.
Bet: Auger-Aliassime ML (-154 – 1.5 units)
Added Plays
PARLAY: Hubert Hurkacz ML vs. Denis Shapovalov + Corentin Moutet ML vs. Sebastian Ofner (-103 – 1.5 units) [French Open]
