UFL Best Bets for the Conference Championship Weekend
Both the USFL and XFL Conference Championship games this weekend are rematches from Week 10, and both games came down to walkoff field goal attempts that missed.
We thought the dogs would be barking and they were with both Michigan and San Antonio losing by a single point to cover their respective spreads last week, but will that be the case again in a win or go home semifinal?
Let’s see if we can find some value and build on a successful 3-1 week! Official plays this season are 18-11-1 on the year which is good, but let’s try to make it great.
Michigan Panthers at Birmingham Stallions
Saturday 3 pm ET, ABC
MICH +5 +210 7-3 SU // 5-5 ATS // O/U 4-6
BIRM -5 -280 9-1 SU // 6-4 ATS // O/U 4-6
Total: 43 (OV -115, UN -115)
(Totals went Under each of the previous meetings.)
If you were blindly looking at a box score of this matchup last week without seeing the final, you would’ve thought Michigan won.
They were the better team in just about every facet but let go of a 10-point halftime lead with untimely penalties and an uncharacteristic missed field goal by Jake Bates, the top kicker in the league.
Michigan was an 8-point dog in the game, should’ve won and will be getting two key pieces back in the lineup this week in Marcus Simms and Matthew Colburn. So when the line for this week opened at +6.5, people immediately thought it was too many points, and the line moved to +5.
To me that -5 with the Stallions looks like a gift. This is the second shortest spread (they were -4.5 vs St. Louis in Week 7) we’ve seen for Birmingham since Week 1 of the season.
You have to think about their situation. They got out to such a big lead in the league at 8-0 and were dominating the competition more often than not. (The average margin of victory through eight weeks was +11.6 PPG.) They’ve known they were going to make the playoffs for weeks and home field was a foregone conclusion.
In my opinion, they’ve been coasting the last handful of weeks, and they clearly haven’t been using star QB Adrian Martinez to his full potential. They played a close game with Houston, who’s one of the worst teams in the league, lost their first game in over a calendar year to SA, and last week, despite being outplayed and showing a very watered-down game plan, they still won.
Because Birmingham has looked “off,” we have a great buy-low opportunity on the Stallions, not only in his game but also in the futures market.
Skip Holtz’s team has been favored all year long to win a UFL Championship (we told you early in the season to bet them while it was plus-money numerous times). They’ve been priced as high as -165, but because of their recent struggles, that number has come all the way back down to -115.
I think postseason Birmingham kicks it into gear and doesn’t leave any doubt about who the best team in spring football is this weekend.
There are a couple of props I also think are worth a look. Martinez had 41 yards on five attempts last week but averaged about 53 yards and seven attempts per game for the season. The first meeting of the year with Michigan he had 65 yards on eight attempts, and I expect his mobility to play a much larger factor in the game plan this week.
I’m also intrigued by an Any Time TD prop on TE Jace Sternberger, who’s gotten in the endzone in back-to-back games. Coach Holtz said in our meeting this week that some of the WRs have been dropping routine balls lately, but Jace has been the most consistent and trusted guy. I could see him continuing to be rewarded for his steady hands and play-making ability Saturday afternoon.
UFL Best Bet: Birmingham -5
Props to consider:
- Adrian Martinez Over 44.5 rush yds -115
- Jace Sternberger Any Time TD +175
I also have a Stallions UFL Title future in pocket at +140, but I’d take the -115 today.
San Antonio Brahmas at St. Louis Battlehawks
Sunday 6 pm ET, FOX
SA +3 +135 7-3 SU // 6-4 ATS // O/U 1-9
STL -3 -170 7-3 SU // 6-4 ATS // O/U 7-3
Total: 44.5
I told you last week that home field in the playoffs was extremely important to Battlehawks head coach Anthony Becht, and they secured it in a nail-biting one-point win over the Brahmas. St. Louis has the best home field in the league, and it’s not close, boasting 35,000+ in the stands each game.
They won but did not cover as a -2.5 point favorite. This week, the rematch spread opened at -3.5, but after the initial move to -3, it has stayed put all week.
AJ McCarron returned to action last week after two games on the sideline with an ankle injury. Even though he’s clearly not 100%, he wants to compete for a championship. Even a compromised McCarron is the Battlehawks’ best option to do so.
San Antonio has the best pass rush in the league and has allowed the fewest points in the league this season, which has and will continue to cause challenges for the Battlehawks.
I don’t have a strong feeling one way or another on the side, but I still lean St. Louis. Don’t love betting a “gut” thing, so let’s look toward the total.
Death, taxes and San Antonio unders remain the story for me. The Brahmas are 1-9 to the under this season riding a seven-game Under streak. They haven’t scored more than 20 points since Week 5 vs. Arlington and haven’t allowed more than 20 points since their first meeting with St. Louis in Week 3 (where they were both very different teams).
Last week’s final score was 13-12, yet the total ticked up from last week’s 42.5 to 44.5. I see a 24-18 type game in the works.
UFL Best Bet: Under 44.5
Lean: STL -3
