Championship Sunday is upon us, so let’s get right to some UFL Championship best bets! Both Conference Championship best bets from last week’s article hit, pushing the UFL official plays to 20-11-1 on the year. While, unfortunately, the prop leans couldn’t come through, I did end up having perhaps the coolest moment of my “betting broadcaster” career during the Birmingham-Michigan semifinal game last week on ABC.
My producer tasked me with making a 1st TD selection — a new market available exclusively for the playoffs FYI. One play after I suggested Michigan’s Saiosi Mariner as my favorite pick to score first at 15/1 (as well as a second option of Birmingham’s CJ Marable at 9/1), Panthers QB Danny Etling hit Mariner on a slant over the middle, and he ran it in to cash the ticket. While my initial reaction was, “I’ve peaked,” for the sake of this article let’s knock on wood and hope I’ve got one more good week of positive juju!
UFL Championship Sunday
5 pm ET on FOX
- Stallions -3 -175 10-1 SU // 7-4 ATS // O/U 5-6
- Brahmas +3 +142 8-3 SU // 7-4 ATS // O/U 1-10
- Total: 42
Is Birmingham Still the Team to Beat?
The storylines are endless with this matchup. On one end you have the historical juggernaut in Birmingham who’s been the shortest shot to win the championship since the preseason and is eyeing a third straight spring football title. On the other end, it’s the overlooked Brahmas who were tied with Michigan at 12/1 for the longest odds to win it all at the season’s start.
There’s also only one team that’s topped Birmingham in the last calendar year: San Antonio. The Brahmas ended what was a 15-game win streak for the Stallions in Week 9 with an 18-9 home win. That week, San Antonio held Birmingham to a season low in total yards, first downs and a new franchise low for points (they were on a 23-game stretch of scoring at least 20 points prior).
With a healthy Chase Garbers back under center and a stout defense, the Brahmas appear to be peaking at the right time, while the Stallions, at least on paper, have taken a step back.
That said, a “step back” for Birmingham is still pretty darn good. Outside of that game, they’ve continued to win. It just hasn’t been in as dominant fashion as we saw earlier in the season.
Even last week, when the MVP of the league, Adrian Martinez, struggled mightily through three quarters, Matt Corral stepped in to lead the Stallions to 28 unanswered points and a win against Michigan.
Martinez will start this week, but I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest to see Corral step in again for a large chunk of the game. That in itself is another thing the Brahmas will need to prepare for.
While I’m in a unique situation as a bettor with futures on both teams, the drum I’ve been beating from Day 1 and will continue to beat is Birmingham to win. Even last week, I wrote about the “buy low” spot on Skip Holtz’s squad at -115, which is now -175 to -190 range. I still laid -3 in a small bet for the game but am less in love with the now more widely priced -3.5, so shop around.
As for the total, my gut tells me we’ll get more scoring than the first meeting but I do feel obligated to continue riding the Under train that’s done so well for us in recent weeks. Death, taxes and Wade Phillips Unders. The Brahmas are 10-1 to the Under this season hitting in eight-straight games. That’s pretty hard to argue with.
San Antonio has only allowed more than 20 points once this season, and it was Week 3 vs. St. Louis. They also haven’t scored more than 20 points in a game since Week 5 vs. Arlington, who had one of the worst defenses in the UFL.
The Brahmas have the best pass rush in the league and have only allowed 12 total TDs for the entire season so whichever QB is on the field for Birmingham will feel the pressure.
The Stallions too have been a monster defensively with the two teams going 1-2 in the league in PPG allowed, total yards per game allowed and TDs.
UFL CHAMPIONSHIP BEST BET: Birmingham -3
Lean: Under 42
POP, LOCK & PROFIT: Props for your consideration
UFL CHAMPIONSHIP BEST BET: Brahmas RB Anthony McFarland O 8.5 rush attempts & O 37.5 rush yds
- I feel like this is a pretty decent misprice on McFarland who will certainly get his touches this game. McFarland is coming off a 115-yard game on 11 run plays where he went over this rush prop on a single 69-yard TD run. The game prior he went for another 82 yards on 15 rushes, and in the five games he’s played this season, he’s gone over this posted number four times. While he’ll be splitting carries with John Lovett, I think he’s got more big play potential and is at a significantly lower yardage prop than Lovett’s 53.5.
Lean: Adrian Martinez U 170.5 yds & U 25.5 pass attempts
- I’m not sure I trust Adrian Martinez getting a full game based on his overall play the last handful of weeks (which led up to him ultimately getting benched in the USFL Conference Championship last week). He’s gone under this number back-to-back games, and while he threw for 211 yards in the first meeting with San Antonio in Week 9, he played the full game and 49 of those yards came on a ridiculous catch and run by TE Jace Sternberger.
Thanks for following along this season. Enjoy Championship Sunday and good luck with your bets!
