Caitlin Clark, Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun
We’re starting off a new week in the WNBA with just one game, as Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever take on the Connecticut Sun Monday night in Connecticut, where the Sun are 10.5-point favorites with an Over/Under of 159.5.
My projections have the Sun lined as a 21-point favorite (!!) with a total of 158.5. The spread has been bouncing around a bit, but we’ll call it Sun -10.5 and that is a bet for me based on the in-season data and my overall numbers.
Pick: Sun -10.5
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Caitlin Clark Player Props
With this being a standalone game, I wanted to dive a little deeper than the side and total and take a look at Caitlin Clark’s player prop odds for this game and give my thoughts along with projections that are out there (TSI does not do player projections).
Points: Over/Under 19.5 (-115/-115)
Clark is averaging 16.8 points per game this year and is taking on the #1 defensive team in the league, per TSI, in the Sun. I think this prop is inflated due to Caitlin’s other-worldly performance in her last game against the lowly Washington Mystics (spoiler: the Sun are NOT the Mystics).
I’d lean Under here.
3PM: Over/Under 2.5 (-145/+110)
Clark averages 2.8 made three pointers per game, so this line is pretty much spot on. She shoots almost 9 per game so only needing to shoot 33% from the field for this to cash seems reasonable, but is accounted for with the -145 juice. I’d probably pass on this at the current line.
Rebounds: Over/Under 5.5 (+100/-130)
Again, right in line with Clark’s season average of 5.3. An important factor to keep in mind in this matchup is that Dijonai Carrington, Clark’s presumed primary defender, has great size and athleticism to go with DeWanna Bonner, Alyssa Thomas and Brionna Jones inside. I’m not sure how many rebounds are going to escape that size, not to mention Clark’s teammate Aliyah Boston. This would also be a stay away for me.
Assists: Over/Under 6.5 (-110/-120)
Clark is averaging 6.3 assists per game, but I’d love to know what that number would be if her teammates would just make a reasonable amount of the layups she creates for them. That has been incredibly frustrating as a fan of the sport. The combination of the inconsistency of her teammates and the defensive prowess of the Sun make me lean Under here.
PRA: Over/Under 31.5 (-105/-130)
Clark’s average of 28.4 PRA is well below this line, although it is juiced to the Under. For all of the aforementioned reasons, this would be under or nothing for me.
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