From “the bump heard ‘round the world” to the Commissioner’s Cup Championship being awarded, there has been plenty of entertainment and drama in this WNBA season. Since there are no games to bet on Wednesday night, I wanted to examine the futures and player award markets to see where the odds currently sit and if there’s anything worth betting.
WNBA MVP
Several weeks ago, I wrote that it felt like A’ja Wilson had already locked up the MVP. I don’t feel any differently now, and the market agrees; Wilson is currently -350 to win the award – implied probability of 77.8% – so literally anyone else is considered a longshot. In terms of my player ratings (value to the point spread), Wilson also stands alone, worth almost 5 points to the spread for the Aces.
Second in the odds, Napheesa Collier of the Minnesota Lynx is +1300 to win the award and is worth about 4 points to the spread for the Lynx. Tied with her is Alyssa Thomas, whose case is fading now that the Sun lost another game to a contender and is garnering a reputation for beating up on the bad teams but unable to get over the hump against the elite competition. That’s not a recipe to win the MVP award, so I wouldn’t waste your money on a Thomas ticket, though she is certainly the engine of the Connecticut team.
The Liberty have been so balanced that I think their stars will all take votes from each other, as Breanna Stewart (+3000), Jonquel Jones (+3500) and Sabrina Ionescu (+6000) are all having fantastic seasons for the T Shoe Index’s #1 team. At this point, I think the only rational bet is Collier, whose team just won the Commissioner’s Cup and she has 13-to-1 odds. Laying -350 for a future doesn’t seem wise this early in the season, so it would be Collier or nothing for me in this market.
WNBA Rookie of the Year
Speaking of drama, does it get any more dramatic than anything featuring Caitlin Clark and Angel Reese? Clark is -950 to win the award and certainly felt like a lock early on, and her team is finally starting to string together some wins; however, there is no denying the impact Reese is having on Chicago. She continues to crank out double-doubles like she’s Charles Barkley and is +600 to win ROY. In fact, in my player ratings, I have Reese worth about 2 points to the spread for Chicago while Clark registers a goose egg – 0 points – to the spread for Indiana. That seems bonkers considering her stats and hype, but she is credited with just .012 win shares per 40 minutes, while Reese is credited with .158. That has to matter for something. It would be foolish even to consider another candidate for this award, and I think Reese at +600 is worth a shot.
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