Caitlin Clark WNBA Odds
Rookie sensation and #1 pick in the WNBA draft Caitlin Clark is +1200 to win the WNBA MVP award this year, but can she really win it or is this just a function of people being caught up in the “Caitlin Mania” right now?
Make no mistake, Clark is an unbelievable talent but only one rookie has ever won MVP in the league’s history, and that’s dominant 6’4” forward Candace Parker. Clark, a 6’0” point guard with LeBron James-level attention on her every night might have a more difficult rookie season than Parker.
Can the Fever win enough games to give her a chance?
Clark’s team, the Indiana Fever, won just 13 games last year. Sure, they should be better this year with star center Aliyah Boston another year developed and the monstrous addition of Clark, but even Parker’s Los Angeles Sparks team won 20 games in her rookie MVP campaign and she was credited with over seven win shares.
To achieve that level of contribution to the Fever’s win total, Clark would have to hit the ground running at an A’ja Wilson or Breanna Stewart level immediately, and that’s just simply asking too much of a rookie who’s going to have the entire league gunning for her defensively. Even as good as Sabrina Ionescu is, she only accounted for five win shares in 2023, and I think Ionescu and Aces star Kelsey Plum are the closest comparisons to Clark…eventually.
For what it’s worth, DraftKings lists Clark at -800 to be WNBA Rookie of the Year.
How much is Caitlin Clark worth to the spread?
Even if she doesn’t win MVP, she can still have a major impact on the Indiana season on a game-to-game basis. So, how much does my T Shoe Index say she is worth to the spread on a given night? Using historical data on players such as the aforementioned Ionescu and Plum and what their on court/off court numbers looked like as rookies, I determined that the Fever should be upgraded 4.5 points in their power rating with the addition of Clark, which brings them from near the bottom of the TSI ratings to exactly the middle at sixth in the league.
I’m most curious to see how her presence impacts Fever Over/Unders throughout the year, because not only does she score in bunches, her passing is exquisite and creates easy opportunities in the pick and roll.
What will Caitlin Clark’s debut look like against the Connecticut Sun?
The betting market is certainly optimistic about Clark’s debut with the Fever against the Connecticut Sun on Tuesday night, given DraftKings is offering Clark props already with Over/Unders set to 21.5 for points, 3.5 for 3-pointers made, 4.5 rebounds and 6.5 assists.
Of these bets, the only Over I would be inclined to bet is the assists prop. Because of Clark’s usage and passing ability, if her teammates just catch and finish at the rim, she should hit seven assists relatively easy. The points, rebounds and 3-pointers made would all be Under leans for me because of the physicality which I expect Clark to see. She will likely have a body glued to her all night, making it more difficult to get clean looks off and equally as difficult to rack up rebounds.
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