It’s Friday, which means we’ve got a full weekend slate of WNBA games ahead and I’m always excited to put my projections out there and try to help everyone cash some tickets. My personal record so far this year on all bets is 65-51-2, good for +10.35 units. Be sure to follow me on X, @TShoeIndex, to get in all of my action throughout the season and beyond.
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Here are today’s projections from my T Shoe Index:
Friday
Minnesota Lynx vs LA Sparks
This is a TSI power rating matchup of #1 (Lynx) vs #11 (Sparks), and the spread of Minnesota -13 is a nod to the disparity between these teams, while the Over/Under sits at 159. TSI is even more bullish on the Lynx, making this a 19.5-point projected Lynx win with a total of 158. If you’re doing the math at home, that means TSI only expects about 69 points out of the Sparks (yikes). We had a similar situation with the Sun/Fever earlier this week and TSI was right on the money in a game that was a complete snooze-fest. I think this could be another blowout.
Bet: Lynx -13 (Play to -14)
Washington Mystics vs Chicago Sky
The one-win (thanks, Atlanta) Mystics opened at multiple books as a 1 point favorite in this game, but that’s now shifted to Chicago -2 in a TSI #6 (Chicago) vs #10 (Washington) game with an Over/Under of 159. TSI projects Chicago as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 155.5. At the current numbers, I don’t have a strong play, but I did personally bet the Sky +1 early on and would still take it at -1, so if the line comes back around I’d make that a play; otherwise, it’s a stay-away but a lean to Chicago for me.
Lean: Chicago -2.5
Saturday
Dallas Wings vs Connecticut Sun
There is currently no total available for this game, but the early line move has seen Connecticut go from -5 to -6.5. TSI currently would favor Connecticut by 10 in this game, as Dallas is pretty much off the rails at this point with Satou Sabally in the lineup. TSI also projects the total at 155.5. I’d play Connecticut up to -7 and my guess is you’re going to see this total open significantly higher than my 155.5 projection so I’d probably be looking for an under opportunity when that line comes out.
Bet: Sun -6.5 (Play to -7)
Las Vegas Aces vs New York Liberty
We have a rematch of last year’s WNBA Finals on tap for Saturday, but with the Aces kind of slogging through the season so far, I’m not quite as excited as I would’ve been if they’d come out firing on all cylinders. Nonetheless, oddsmakers still gave the Aces the benefit of the doubt, opening this game at Aces -3.5, which has now come down to -2. TSI projects the Liberty as road favorites here by 3.5 points, with a projected total of 173. My assumption here is that the total will open around 168 and I would be looking for an Over at that point. As it stands, I like the Liberty to win and cover.
Bet: Liberty +2 (play to pk)
Sunday
We don’t have lines for Sunday games yet at the time of writing this article, so I will quickly give my TSI projections and you can make your own judgment calls when lines come out, or hit me up on X and I’m happy to answer any “would you bet this?” questions.
TSI projections in parentheses:
Indiana Fever vs Chicago Sky (-8.5), (166)
Phoenix Mercury vs Seattle Storm (-3.5), (160.5)
Atlanta Dream (-7) vs LA Sparks, (157)
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