WNBA Best Bets for Friday, June 30
Washington Mystics -2.5 at Atlanta Dream, 164.5
What happens when unstoppable speed meets an immovable object? The Mystics (13-1 SU, 7-7 ATS) are ranked first overall in defensive rating while the Dream (5-8 SU, 6-7 ATS) sit at 11th. On the other side, the Dream rank first in pace while the Mystics are eighth.
Last season, Washington beat the Dream all four times they played and didn’t let them score more than 74 points in any of the matchups. Three out of the four games went under, with totals in the mid-150s. Granted this season, Atlanta has made major improvements on offense. Last year, they led the league in percentage of points from mid-range shots, but this year it’s Washington, which from an efficiency standpoint is not a category you necessarily want to lead.
Fast forward to now, and these teams just played on Wednesday with the Mystics earning the win at home, 109-86. They led by as much as 32 at one point. The Dream have now failed to cover three straight games. They shot just 36.8% overall and 33.3% from deep. Atlanta coach Tanisha Wright did miss Wednesday’s game for personal reasons, and Vickie Johnson served as the acting head coach, but Wright is set to return for Friday’s game. Atlanta has also been on the road for five of their last six games. Now, the Dream will be back at home, with their coach, and looking for revenge.
Still, the Mystics have seemed to turn a corner covering five straight games. They did lose Shakira Austin to a hip injury this past Sunday (out at least three weeks) but managed to overcome the absence on Wednesday. I expect the Dream’s shooting will improve, but the Mystics are a savvy, veteran team that should be able to get the job done again, this time on the road.
Washington Mystics -2.5
Los Angeles Sparks at Chicago Sky -2.5, 154.5
Chicago (6-9 SU, 8-5-2 ATS) ended their six-game losing streak on Wednesday at home, beating the Sparks 80-63 and covering as 2.5-point home favorites. Now both teams are back for seconds. During the Sky’s skid, their defensive rating dropped from fourth-best in the league to second to last, and they were averaging 16.5 turnovers. In the Wednesday win, they improved on the turnovers and defensively dominated down low allowing just 22 points in the paint. Limiting Nneka Ogwumike will need to remain a priority in this matchup.
Meanwhile, L.A. has been playing shorthanded without Lexie Brown and Nia Clouden and have struggled to keep a consistent roster on the court this season. The Sparks (7-8 SU, 7-7-1 ATS) have also performed notably better at home this season (6-3 ATS) than on the road (2-4 ATS.) I expect their road woes will continue on Friday.
The Under is 6-1 in the Sparks’ last seven overall, and betting their team total under has certainly been a reliable option lately with them scoring 76 points or less in five of their last six games. Still, one bright spot for the Sparks has been Jordin Canada who has managed to put together consistent performances, scoring in double digits in 10 consecutive games and 12 of the 14 games she’s played this season. She has also scored more than 13 points in six of her last nine games. The Sparks will continue to need Canada’s “spark,” so I’ll look to her points in this game.
Jordin Canada Over 13.5 points
