It’s Friday, which means I’m hitting you with projections for tonight’s four-game slate, as well as the entire weekend’s worth of projections for the WNBA. Process note: as I’ve mentioned before, I slowly phase out preseason projections with each passing game a team plays, so some teams are now operating exclusively with on-court data while others include just a sprinkle of preseason projections still baked into their ratings.
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Here are today’s projections from my T Shoe Index:
Friday
Phoenix Mercury vs Minnesota Lynx
Our season win total under bet is still looking good on the Mercury, while I now have Minnesota projected to win 31 games (while their win total Over/Under was 16.5), as the Lynx are now #1 in the TSI ratings and is a 5.5-point favorite on the road with an Over/Under of 163.5. TSI projects Minnesota -8 with a total of 159, and removing any preseason projections would make this game Lynx -9.5 with a total of 157.5. TSI totals have been great in particular, lately, so I’m going to play this under rather than the side.
Bet: Under 162.5 (Play to 162)
LA Sparks vs Dallas Wings
TSI and oddsmakers do not see Dallas the same way, so if they’re playing you can pretty much count on TSI showing an edge on the side, total, or both. The Wings are 3.5-point favorites with an Over/Under of 161.5, while TSI projects Dallas -5 with a total of 166.5 and the on-court formula projects Wings -4 with a total of 164.5. The spread is too tight for me to play and I don’t have enough faith that the Sparks can actually contribute enough to the total to make it a best bet, but I lean over.
Lean: Over 161.5
Washington Mystics vs Indiana Fever
This line has swung from Washington -1.5 to Indiana -2.5 while the Over/Under sits are 162.5. It’s tricky because Washington just played last night and back-to-backs aren’t very common in the WNBA so I’m not sure how they’ll be affected by it. TSI projects Mystics -4.5 with a total of 164 and on-court only numbers say Mystics -4 with a total of 164.5. Rested or not, this is a huge disparity and I know the public loves Caitlin Clark, but this line move seems crazy to me.
Bet: Mystics +2.5 (Play to +1.5)
Las Vegas Aces vs Seattle Storm
A’ja Wilson seems like she’s already got the MVP locked up in the first week of June, which is absurd. I’ll write about that market soon. For tonight her team is 9 point favorites over the visiting Seattle Storm, who have seemed to find their footing recently, with an over/under of 166. TSI projects Aces -6 with a total of 165 and removing the preseason numbers would make it Aces -5 with a total of 165. I think I’m going to ride with Jewell Lloyd and Nneka Ogwumike (who is expected to be available tonight).
Bet: Storm +9 (Play to +8.5)
Saturday
Connecticut Sun vs New York Liberty
If you look hard enough, you can get 1 point with either team, depending on the book right now, with an Over/Under of 159.5. TSI projects Sun -4 with a total of 150.5. On-court only formula projects Sun -4.5, 149.
Bet: Under 159.5 (Play to 157.5)
Chicago Sky vs Atlanta Dream
Atlanta is a 1.5-point road favorite with an Over/Under of 158.5. TSI projects Chicago -6 with a total of 149 and removing preseason numbers would make it Sky -2, 149.
Bet: Under 158.5 (Play to 156.5)
Sunday – no lines available, TSI projections in parentheses
NY Liberty (-16.5) vs Washington Mystics (O/U 157)
Dallas Wings (-2.5) vs Phoenix Mercury (O/U 171)
Minnesota Lynx (-6.5) vs Seattle Storm (O/U 153)
LA Sparks vs Las Vegas Aces (-14) (O/U 167)
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