WNBA Best Bets:
I want to apologize for cursing the Aces/Fever Over last night. I honestly don’t remember the last time I won a bet on a game that I was attending. (Make note that I’m attending Aces/Mystics on Thursday.) With only one Wednesday game on tap, I’m going to give you projections for Wednesday and Thursday, so you’re armed with those to bet against earlier numbers.
WNBA Betting Splits | Parlay Calculator
Let’s get to the WNBA best bets.
Wednesday
Dallas Wings vs. Phoenix Mercury
I’ve mentioned many times how disappointing Dallas has been this season. Not only have they been unequivocally bad, but they’ve also been inconsistent and erratic – which, for a bettor, is the worst thing you can be. If you’re going to be bad, then be bad and predictable. Nonetheless, Phoenix is a 5-point road favorite with an Over/Under of 170.5, while TSI projects Mercury -7.5 with a total of 170. Slight edge on the Mercury, but they’ve honestly been almost as inconsistent as Dallas, so I’ve got formulas ranging from -4.5 to -7.5 on this game. I think I’ll pass altogether.
WNBA Best Bet: Stay away
Thursday
Minnesota Lynx vs. Connecticut Sun
This game has the potential to be a (low-scoring) banger. The Sun, despite only having four losses, have fallen off a cliff from a power rating perspective lately, as their last five games’ power rating is over three points lower than their season-long rating. The Lynx somehow managed to lose (and not even cover!) against the Liberty on Tuesday despite leading for much of the game. Minnesota is a 1-point home favorite with an Over/Under of 155.5. TSI projects Minnesota -2.5 with a total of – wait for it – 142 (!!) I literally had to double-check to make sure that was correct and sure enough, it is, so TSI is calling for a slugfest in Minnesota.
WNBA Best Bet: Under 155.5 (Play above 150)
Las Vegas Aces vs. Washington Mystics
As mentioned above, I will also be attending this game, so adjust your handicaps accordingly. Vegas is a 16.5-point favorite at Mandalay Bay with an Over/Under of 169.5, but TSI is not quite as high as the market here, projecting Aces -10 with a total of 176. Getting back in their normal gym should help shooters for Vegas, and Washington has shown a propensity to get hot and certainly give up quite a few points to better teams. I think I’m going to go over here rather than play the side, given Washington’s health situation.
WNBA Best Bet: Over 169.5 (Play to 171)
For all of my prop bets and live plays, be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex and turn your notifications on to get the real time updates from me on all things WNBA.
