There’s no way around it: I got destroyed this weekend on my bets after starting the season red hot. It happens. It’s a give-and-take game and by all accounts, this weekend did more taking than giving. However, not to make excuses, but anyone watching the Mercury/Dream and Storm/Lynx games knows that we should’ve been ~5-2 on bets in those games and ended up 1-6 thanks to some shenanigans late in both games.
We’re back in the saddle today with a two-game slate, featuring the NY Liberty vs the aforementioned Storm, and the Indiana Fever vs Connecticut Sun.
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Here are today’s projections from my T Shoe Index:
New York Liberty vs Seattle Storm
Seattle is a great anecdote of why I generally say individual players are overrated from a betting perspective; star forward Nneka Ogwumike missed Sunday’s game with an injury, pushing the line from Seattle -6.5 to Seattle -3.5, only for them to go on and win the game by nine. At the time of writing, I’m unsure if she’s playing today, but I am not adjusting my projection regardless. The Liberty are currently 10.5-point favorites with an Over/Under of 170.5 at DraftKings. TSI projects the Liberty -11 with a total of 162. Obviously, a big discrepancy on the total, and I’ve looked at all relevant numbers – TSI, preseason TSI, and using only the small sample of 2024-only data – and all signs point to an under here. The fact Seattle is on a back-to-back only makes me like it more.
Bet: Under 170.5 (play to 168.5)
Indiana Fever vs Connecticut Sun
The Caitlin Clark rookie season is off to a rugged start, as the Fever are 0-3 and their only cover was a last second layup against the Liberty on Saturday to cut a 13-point lead to 11 after trailing by 15+ most of the game. Not only are they losing, they haven’t been particularly competitive. I don’t expect that to change in a rematch with the Sun, who are a top-three team in the W, per TSI. Connecticut is a 5.5-point favorite across the board with an Over/Under of 163.5. TSI projects Connecticut -6.5 with a total of 160.5. Despite seemingly showing a bigger edge on the total, I’m more interested in the spread here; I bet the Sun -4 shortly after opening on Sunday, and I still like it at the current iteration, as the various supporting formulas I look at range from -6.5 to -16 on this game, none under the current 5.5 line.
Bet: Sun -5.5 (Play to -6.5)
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