After a flurry of 4th quarter points from the Sun and Sky last night, we barely lost our best bet on the Under, which was a frustrating beat but nonetheless we are back in the saddle with a three-game slate tonight, featuring some of the brightest stars in the WNBA.
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Here are today’s projections from my T Shoe Index:
Dallas Wings vs Seattle Storm
I wrote about the Storm yesterday as a great value bet to win the WNBA championship because their star core is really starting to get acclimated playing together and they’ve been very impressive in their last few games, jumping up to #4 in the TSI. The Wings, meanwhile, have been disappointing and inconsistent, but Arike Ogunbowale is always must-see TV with her Kyrie-like handles and ability to knock down the deep 3-ball.
The Storm are 7.5-point road favorites with an Over/Under of 162.5, while TSI projects Seattle -5 with a total of 158. I think this is the first game all season I’ve projected an under on Dallas, which has my attention. The market is moving towards the over, so I’d encourage you to wait and try to get the best number you can, but as it stands we’ll call it 162.5.
Bet: Under 162.5 (or better)
Indiana Fever vs Atlanta Dream
I’m still a little salty about how the Dream performed the other night against the lowly Mystics that blew two bets for me, but that’s neither here nor there. Tonight, they’ll face off against Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever, who are also fresh off of a shellacking at the hands of the Sun. Atlanta is up to 3.5-point favorites on the road with an Over/Under of 162.5, and TSI projects Atlanta -6.5 with a total of 164. I try to live by the old adage, “Bet numbers, not teams”, so I’m going to roll with Atlanta despite them royally burning us earlier in the week, but maybe that’s what makes a good bettor? That’s what I’m telling myself, anyway.
Bet: Dream – 3.5 (Play to -4)
Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces
This is a sneaky good game on the slate tonight; Phoenix has already beaten the Aces once and the Aces have been extremely mortal so far this season, while Phoenix finally got Brittney Griner back in the lineup a couple games ago and has looked good since. Vegas is currently 6.5-point favorites with a total of 168.5 and climbing. TSI projects the Aces -3.5 with a total of 171.5. I personally bet this Over at 166 but it would only be a lean for me at this number, while the market keeps inflating the spread on the spiraling Aces, I’d be much more interested in the Mercury and the points here.
Lean: Mercury +6.5
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