WNBA Best Bets for Thursday, June 15
Since Tuesday, all four games played resulted in the underdogs covering and winning outright.
Now, underdogs are 33-18-3 ATS, covering over 64% of the time. We won’t see any home dogs on Thursday, which is too bad because they are currently 15-6 ATS, covering over 71% of the time.
But we will have three road dogs which are currently 18-12-3 ATS and covering 60% of the time.
Atlanta Dream at Connecticut Sun -7.5, 163
Atlanta (3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS) is fresh off a big road win over the New York Liberty and now travels to Connecticut to play the Sun (8-2 SU, 5-4-1 ATS). The Dream’s three wins may pale compared to Connecticut’s eight, but a win over the Liberty is a huge step forward for this talented young team. Now, the Dream are averaging 7.6 3-pointers per game and are shooting above 35% from deep, but the Sun have the best perimeter defense in the league. When these two teams played in Atlanta on June 11th, the Sun won 89-77 and held the Dream to 5 of 19 from deep (19%.)
This well-balanced, veteran-led Sun team is third in both points per 100 possessions, and opponents points per 100 possessions, but only seventh in effective field goal percentage. Meanwhile, Atlanta likes to play fast (second in pace), but the speed comes with a price —turnovers (11th in turnover percentage). So, I lean under in this game, but instead, I will look to the spread. Atlanta showed us they can recover after a brutal beat down when they lost to New York by 23 at home, then came to Barclays Center four days later and won by seven. Connecticut will win this game, but the Dream are capable of keeping it close.
Dream +7.5
Indiana Fever at Chicago Sky -2.5, 159.5
On Tuesday, Indiana (3-6 SU, 5-3-1 ATS) beat the Mystics. By eleven. You read that right. The Baby Fever are growing up and heading to Chicago on Thursday night. The last time they played Chicago (5-5 SU, 7-2-1 ATS), the Fever led most of the game, but in overtime, the Sky locked up the 108-103 win. I’d like to back the Fever in this spot, but there aren’t enough points to justify it. The Sky are well coached, at home, and have Kahleah Copper. According to Annie Costabile from the Chicago-Sun Times, Copper is listed as questionable (personal) for this game and has missed two practices. However, on Wednesday afternoon, Costabile asked Sky Head Coach James Wade if Copper would play, and Wade said she would and that she was fine.
One thing’s for sure, the Fever’s Aliyah Boston is having one of the best rookie years the league has ever seen. She’s averaging 14.7 points per game and 1.25 points per play with a field goal percentage north of 67%. She’s only averaging one turnover per game and has the fifth-best Player Efficiency Rating in the WNBA. Last time versus Chicago, she scored 25 points despite Elizabeth Williams’ best efforts to defend her. I’ll expect another big game from Boston and bet her points over 16.5.
Aliyah Boston Over 16.5 points
Seattle Storm at Las Vegas Aces -17.5, 168
Poor, sweet Seattle (2-6 SU, 5-2-1 ATS) is battling in a rebuilding year. On the bright side, the Storm beat Phoenix on the road and covered five of their last seven games. But now they have to head to Las Vegas to face the defending champs. The Aces (8-1 SU, 4-5 ATS) have only covered once in their last five games but handily beat the Storm in their season opener, 105-64. This spread is too big for me to back the Aces, especially because it could be a blowout where we see the starters sit toward the end, allowing the Storm a chance to cover. Every total in the 160s for the Aces this year has gone over. However, the last time they played the Storm, the Aces had to score 62% of the points, so I’d lean to the under here. I’ll lay off this game and look forward to watching Seattle make a run at covering this spread.
