The WNBA is back in full swing with a four-game slate. We were on a bit of a run heading into this mini-break, so hopefully, we can keep the momentum rolling now that things are back to normal (until the Olympics break). I slightly tweaked the TSI formula with the extra time to analyze results this week based on some back-testing that I deemed successful.
WNBA Betting Splits | Parlay Calculator
Here are tonight’s projections:
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx
Fresh off the Commissioner’s Cup Championship, the Lynx are favored by 9 points on the road tonight with an Over/Under of 164.5. TSI projects Minnesota -14.5 with a total of 158.5. We saw the early line moves agree with TSI before we had some buy-back to where the market sits now. People seem to remember the high-scoring affair Tuesday night but forget that the Lynx were playing the Liberty – and the Wings are NOT the Liberty.
WNBA Best Bet: Under 164.5 (Play to 162.5)
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun
As if Washington’s season couldn’t get any unluckier, they’re going to be without starters Brittney Sykes and Karlie Samuelson until after the Olympics break, while Aaliyah Edwards is pretty much day-to-day with a back injury. The Sun are 10.5 point road favorites with an Over/Under of 152. TSI projects Connecticut -4.5, but with the anticipated lineup changes, I would make a 3.5-point adjustment and call it Sun -8 with a total of 153. This line continues to climb in favor of the Sun, so I’d be patient here but ultimately end up on the Mystics.
WNBA Best Bet: Washington Mystics +10.5 or better
Chicago Sky vs. Las Vegas Aces
Chicago is fresh off a thrilling last-second victory over Caitlin Clark’s Fever on Sunday, but it feels like the Aces haven’t played in forever since they’ve played the fewest games in the league so far. The market is all over Vegas, though, driving the line from -8 to -10.5 and the total from 167.5 to 173. TSI projects Aces -8.5 with a total of 172.5. However, the Aces have been so hot since getting Chelsea Gray back that I wouldn’t want the Sky anywhere near the current line in this game while TSI catches up to the Aces.
WNBA Best Bet: Stay away at current numbers
Seattle Storm vs. Indiana Fever
Speaking of Clark, who had a great game against Chicago on Sunday, her Fever will travel to Seattle to take on Jewell Lloyd and company as 9-point underdogs with a total of 168. TSI projects Seattle -7 with a total of 167, so there’s some value on the Fever here, and when you weigh recent games even more heavily, this game becomes more like a pick ‘em.
WNBA Best Bet: Indiana Fever +9 or better
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