If you follow me on X – and if you’re reading this, you care about betting the WNBA, so you should be following me on X – you know last night was infuriating from a betting perspective. We went 1-2 on best bets after the Storm and Fever went over the total in the closing seconds due to excessive late game fouling, while one of our two prop bets lost in the final minute on two unlucky loose ball rebounds by Ezi Macbegor (credit to her for the hustle, but man…).
Tonight, we have a three-game slate and I’m ready to get the bad taste out of my mouth. My VSiN article plays are still 5-2 on the season, and my overall bets are 30-22-1 for +7.49 units.
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Here are today’s projections from my T Shoe Index:
NY Liberty vs Chicago Sky
Chicago is playing its first non-Dallas game of the season, while the Liberty on are their fifth game of the season and are currently 15.5-point favorites with an Over/Under of 165.5. TSI projects Liberty -18 with a total of 163.
Keep in mind, TSI still is weighing preseason projections into these forecasts, but I do take a peek at what teams are doing so far this season only – which isn’t the most accurate over the long haul but is a nice reference point – and these teams haven’t quite had the offensive outbursts TSI projected, so if I were to project the total using only 2024 data, I would make it 153, so these number aligning on the under are enough for me to pull the trigger here, especially since it is a downward trajectory (in-season data projects lower than the comprehensive TSI formula).
Bet: Under 165.5 (Play to 164.5)
Connecticut Sun vs Minnesota Lynx
The Sun have been relatively inconsistent so far, pounding the Fever in the opener only to beat them by just four points on the road earlier this week. Minnesota, meanwhile, has exceeded expectations after beating the Storm twice already this season. Connecticut is a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 163.5.
This is another game where TSI projects some value on the Under, with a total projected at 158.5, with the Sun projected as 7 point favorites. Again, looking at the in-season data, the projected total would be even lower, giving me more confidence in an under here.
Bet: Under 163.5 (Play to 162.5)
Phoenix Mercury vs Washington Mystics
Phoenix has started off the season better than expected, playing a close game with the defending champion Aces in the opener and then beating them outright earlier this week. Washington, meanwhile, just lost to the talented-but-young Sparks and just don’t seem to have the star power without forward Elena Delle Donne, who’s sitting out this season.
Phoenix is a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 162.5, while TSI projects the Mercury as just 4.5-point favorites with a total of 159.5. I’d lean Washington +6.5 here, but I don’t really want any part of this total because the in-season data indicates a much higher total (166), so the conflicting projections are enough to keep me off of this.
Lean: Washington +6.5
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