WNBA Best Bets for Tuesday, July 18
Minnesota Lynx at Atlanta Dream -5.5, 171
The last time Atlanta played Minnesota was back on May 23rd, a game they won and covered as 1.5-point underdogs, 83-77. In that game, the Lynx outscored the Dream 25-12 in points off turnovers, but the Dream got to the line more. Now they get the Lynx at home.
The Dream (11-8 SU, 11-8 ATS) entered the All-Star break on a six-game win streak in which they covered five of those games. In that same stretch, they ranked third in effective field goal percentage and fourth in turnover percentage. However, most of the teams they played were not the top of the pack: the Storm, the Sky, and the injury-riddled Sparks. They still sit in the middle of the pack on both offensive and defensive rating but have continued to hold on to the top spot in pace.
Atlanta has cashed 12 Overs in their 19 games played so far, and there have been six Overs for the Lynx in their last seven games. The Lynx (9-11 SU, 11-9 ATS) are also in the bottom third of the league in defense, but this total being in the 170s makes me less interested in an Over here. Instead, I’ll look to live bet the Dream at a more favorable number since I still can’t trust them to cover six here. They may have turned a corner before the break, but consistency has been an issue for this team.
Connecticut Sun -7 at Phoenix Mercury, 163
This will be the first meeting this season between the resident orange teams in the league, and the similarities pretty much end with the orange jerseys. The Sun (15-5 SU, 11-8-1 ATS) have won seven of their last nine games, covered six of them, and their last two losses were to the top two teams in the league, the Aces and the Liberty. Meanwhile, the Mercury (4-15 SU, 6-13 ATS) have been lackluster in about every category, winning four total games so far this season.
One thing Mercury fans can look forward to is Diana Taurasi closing in on her 10,000th point. She’s already the WNBA’s all-time leading scorer, but this milestone will further cement her dominance. She is currently 86 points away and averaging 14.7 points per game so far this season, which means we could see her get to 10,000 points in the next 5-7 games, which makes it something to keep our eyes on moving forward.
As far as the total, Connecticut has also cashed 13 Overs in their 20 games played so far, including five in their last six games. They’ll need Phoenix to show up to get this over the total, which may be a big ask from the team ranked last in points per 100 possessions. The Sun are the better team and should win this game handily, but I’m not looking to lay more than seven.
Connecticut Sun -7
