WNBA Best Bets:
It was a profitable 2-1 day for us yesterday in WNBA best bets if you follow along on X @TShoeIndex, with the lone loss being Mercury +3, which I made before knowing Diana Taurasi was out with a back injury. Nonetheless, we are back in the saddle today with a full slate, including a game I will personally be attending – not sure if that’s a plus or minus for the handicap.
WNBA Betting Splits | Parlay Calculator
Let’s get to today’s projections:
New York Liberty vs. Minnesota Lynx
In a rematch of the Commissioner’s Cup Championship, these teams will face off again on Tuesday. The Liberty is a 6-point favorite with an Over/Under of 165. TSI projects Liberty -3.5 with a total of 161, and the market has moved against me on both the side and the total, which intrigues me. If studying this market lately has taught me anything, it’s that it’s not nearly as efficient as the NFL or even college football, as CLV has meant basically nothing in an illiquid market like this, so I’m not afraid to go against it if my numbers call to do so.
WNBA Best Bet: Minnesota Lynx +6 (play to +5)
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky
It feels like every Atlanta game is a different team suiting up in uniform, as their performance has become about as predictable as a youth league team would be. Nonetheless, they are 1-point favorites against Angel Reese and the Sky, with an Over/Under of around 160 depending on where you look. TSI projects Dream -3 with a total of 158, so there’s not a ton of value to be had here.
WNBA Best Bet: Stay away
Las Vegas Aces vs. Indiana Fever
Caitlin Clark and company will invade SIn City to take on A’ja Wilson and the Aces, and your boy will be in attendance as well, which I’m excited about. The Aces are 13.5-point home favorites with an Over/Under of 175. I bet this Over at 173.5 this week, as TSI projects Aces -11 with a total around 180. I’d still lean over but 175 is kind of my cutoff point to bet an Over.
WNBA Best Bet: Lean Over 175
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Washington Mystics
I love this Mystics team. They are not supremely talented and have a plethora of injuries, but they keep fighting and taking good teams down to the wire. They are 1.5-point road favorites in LA with an Over/Under of 162.5, while TSI projects Mystics -2 with a total of 169.5. We’ve seen both teams get in some high-scoring affairs, so I’m optimistic about the Over in this one.
WNBA Best Bet: Over 162.5 (Play to 164)
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