WNBA Best Bets for Tuesday, July 25
Phoenix Mercury at Atlanta Dream -6.5, 166
The Mercury (6-16 SU, 8-13 ATS) have taken a small step forward lately, winning four of their last ten games and covering five. In their last six games, they even rank fourth in defensive rating (up from dead last.) Still, that does not in any way warrant them getting this few points against the Dream on the road. Atlanta (12-10 SU, 12-9 ATS) just lost to a very good Connecticut team twice, but they won seven straight games before that and have the decidedly better offense in this matchup. This line opened with the Dream only favored by 4.5 but has already moved up, so I wouldn’t want to bet it at much more than 7.
Atlanta likes to play fast and is ranked first overall in pace, but Phoenix has only scored more than 72 points twice in their last six games. The Mercury also hit five Unders in their last six games, while the Dream are on a streak of six straight Unders. Not to mention, the Mercury will still be without Diana Taurasi who is dealing with a quad injury.
Under 166
Atlanta Dream -6.5
Las Vegas Aces -14 at Chicago Sky, 169.5
These teams last played on June 10th, a game the Aces won but the Sky barely covered as 13.5-point road dogs, 93-80. Las Vegas (21-2 SU, 12-10 ATS) led by as much as 29 in that game and the Sky were only able to cover by outscoring the Aces in the fourth quarter, 20-13. Since then, the Sky (9-13 SU, 10-9-2 ATS) have lost their head coach and gone tumbling down the ranks while the Aces have continued to score at will.
This is why Las Vegas has consistently seen the highest totals in the league and are tied with Indiana for most Overs cashed this season at 13. However, the Sky have hit four Unders in their last five games and are ranked second to last in offensive rating in their last 10 games.
On the episode of Bet the W previewing these Tuesday games (available wherever you get your podcasts and in video format on VSiN’s YouTube), guest Calvin Wetzel pointed out that the Aces are now 17-6 ATS in first-half spreads. So, with the possibility for a backdoor cover here due to Vegas’s dropoff in production from their bench, the Aces’ first-half spread is a better way to play this one.
One last thing of note, Candace Parker has been out since before the All-Star break and on Monday had surgery to repair a fracture in her right foot. She is out indefinitely, and while this may not impact the Aces very much in the short term, it definitely impacts their rotations and depth moving forward.
Seattle Storm at New York Liberty -15, 167.5
New York (16-5 SU, 8-12 ATS) opened as 13-point favorites in this spot and have already been bet up to 15, which is a little surprising given they have only covered one of their last six games. But the one game they covered was their most recent win over the Indiana Fever, where the Liberty’s offense was humming as they knocked down 17 three-pointers on their way to scoring 101 points.
The Storm (4-18 SU, 11-9-1 ATS) played in New York on July 8th, easily covering as 13.5-point favorites but ultimately lost the game, 80-76. The Storm are ranked last in points in the paint per 100 possessions, but somehow outscored the Liberty there last time 34-26, and outrebounded them 48-30. This time, however, Jordan Horston will be sitting out for personal reasons.
If you refer to the Aces’ first-half ATS record mentioned above, this trend has also applied to other teams that have been double-digit favorites this season, so that may be the way to bet the Liberty in this spot.
Connecticut Sun at Dallas Wings -2, 167.5
The Wings (13-9 SU, 10-10-1 ATS) are on a tear having won and covered seven of their last eight games, notably including wins over the top two teams: the Aces and the Liberty.
The Sun (17-6 SU, 12-9-1 ATS) are fresh off two wins over Atlanta and did beat Dallas the last time they played on June 4th, 80-74.
Where Connecticut may struggle this time is dealing with Dallas’s considerable size advantage. When Connecticut lost their star center, Bri Jones, to a season-ending Achilles injury they switched to a smaller rotation. Dallas scores the most points in the paint per 100 possessions, and their defense is also first in opponent points in the paint per 100 possessions, plus they are the top rebounding team. The Sun will have to rely on their elite defense to try to slow down Dallas (second in pace.) Both teams will be highly motivated to get this win, but I think Dallas can get this done at home and continue their spree.
Dallas Wings -2
Indiana Fever at Los Angeles Sparks -3, 165.5
Indiana (6-16 SU, 11-8-2 ATS) beat Washington last week but has lost nine of their last 10 games. However, the Fever have been able to cover three of their last four games despite being down their second-leading scorer and leading rebounder, NaLyssa Smith, who is still out with a foot injury.
The Sparks (7-15 SU, 7-12-2 ATS) have failed to cover the spread in their last eight games. In fact, the last time they covered was one month ago on June 25th. Los Angeles will continue to be without Chiney Ogwumike (foot) for several more weeks, but they did just welcome back Lexie Brown who has been out since mid-June. In her first game back, Brown scored 13 points in 20 minutes of play and then scored 14 in the Sparks’ most recent loss in Dallas.
Los Angeles ranks second in pace in their last 10 games, while the Fever sit at second to last, so I expect the Sparks will push the tempo in this one and may be able to secure a home win. This may be a great game to see how the teams look and live bet accordingly.
