Yesterday’s game between the Fever and Sun was one of those games where I pay particularly close attention; not only because of the star power on the court with Caitlin Clark, Aliyah Boston, Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner, but because there was a massive 10-point discrepancy between my projection and the market, which always leads to existential anxiety.
However, I’ve definitely come to realize over the last year that most of the time that happens, I’m happy to trust TSI (see: Oklahoma vs Texas in CFB last year), and the model came through again, projecting a 21-point Sun win and they led by 20 virtually the whole 4th quarter before backups finished the game up 17 – with the closing line being 10. That win continues my personal best bet run of 13-2 right now, so let’s hope to keep the momentum rolling tonight with a three-game slate.
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Here are today’s projections from my T Shoe Index:
Atlanta Dream vs Washington Mystics
Poor Washington is still seeking its first win of the season despite playing relatively competitive in most games, while Atlanta sits at perfectly average from a power rating standpoint and is 5-4 on the season. The Dream are currently 7-point favorites at home with an Over/Under of 157, but TSI projects Atlanta -10.5 with a total right at 157.
Atlanta is one of only two teams (Aces) whose rating is not 100% based on on-court numbers due to the number of games they’ve played, so there’s still a smidge of preseason projection baked into their rating, however the in-season data reflects exactly the same projection, so I feel good about laying it with the Dream here.
Bet: Dream -7 (Play to -8)
Seattle Storm vs Los Angeles Sparks
This is the battle of “we just beat the Aces”, as both the Storm and Sparks have beaten the defending champs in the last week, so both should be feeling good heading into this one, where Seattle is a 10.5-point favorite with an Over/Under of 158.5. TSI makes Seattle a 12-point favorite with a total of 153.5. These teams have combined to go under in 4 of their last 5 games each (8 out of 10) so I really like this Under.
Bet: Under 158.5 (Play to 157.5)
Las Vegas Aces vs Minnesota Lynx
I mentioned in a previous article that Minnesota is the new #1 in TSI, while the Aces have fallen to 4th, but are favored by 6.5 points at home after opening as 9-point favorites with an Over/Under of 165.5. TSI sees this matchup completely differently, projecting Minnesota -3 with a total of 163. I’ve found no way to slice the on-court numbers to justify Vegas being the favorite here, so oddsmakers must be relying on preseason projections heavily still at this point for this one. Like I said, I’ll trust TSI in these situations.
Bet: Lynx +6.5 (Play to +6)
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