WNBA Best Bets for Tuesday, June 13
Washington Mystics -5.5 at Indiana Fever, 159.5
Washington (5-3 SU, 2-6 ATS) has had trouble finding a rhythm on offense, but one thing has remained consistent—their defense (first in defensive rating.) So far, they have played the Sun, Liberty, Sky, and Wings who are all in the top half of the league in defense, and the Storm and Lynx who have also struggled to produce points. When you combine all those factors, it’s no surprise the result is seven unders in eight games played.
On the other side, Indiana (2-6 SU, 4-3-1 ATS) has seen five overs, even against solid defensive teams. Still, the Mystics should be able to dictate the pace of this game, and I will look to the under. It opened at 160.5 before being bet down to 159 which is about as far down as I’d like to take it. Regarding the spread, the Fever have been covering, even going 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games. This season, Indiana nearly beat the Aces, lost by three to the Sun, and took the Sky to overtime. I’ll take the points with the Fever until the Mystics can get back on track. Plus, home dogs are now 14-6 ATS, covering 70% of the time this season.
Indiana Fever +5.5
Under 159.5
Atlanta Dream at New York Liberty -11.5, 169.5
Atlanta is back on the road after five straight home games, where they went 1-4 SU, almost beat the Aces, and then had a week off before losing to the Sun and Liberty (6-2 SU, 3-4 ATS.) New York beat them 106-83 on June 9th, and now they have to play at Barclays Center.
This total opened at 166.5 and was promptly bet up to 169.5 for good reason. The Liberty are second in offensive rating and effective field goal percentage, while the Dream are second in pace. Atlanta has also been shooting better lately averaging around 44% over their last three games, but they continue to give the ball away and are now 11th in turnover percentage. This game could definitely go over 169.5, but since it has moved so far from the opening number, I’m not as thrilled about it. Taking the points with the Dream is a risk, but the Liberty have only covered a spread larger than nine once this season, and I don’t expect the Dream will lose by 23 points again, as long as they can hold on to the ball.
Atlanta Dream +11.5
Seattle Storm at Phoenix Mercury -5, 161.5
Seattle (1-6 SU, 4-2-1 ATS) has had to rely heavily on Jewell Loyd for their points, and when she didn’t play last Friday, they lost to the Mystics in a very low-scoring affair. Loyd did come back and play on Sunday vs the Mystics, but she shot very poorly going 6 of 22 and 1 of 8 from deep. Wear and tear or fatigue may be settling in, and the Storm have now seen three straight unders after opening the season with four overs.
The Mercury (2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS) are coming off a narrow road win over Indiana on Sunday, and they are favored back at home on one day’s rest. If Jewell Loyd is not at 100%, we can’t expect a lot out of Seattle in this matchup which is why the Mercury are favored by this many points. I’ll look to an under in this contest and hope that the Mercury’s complete lack of defense (11th in defensive rating) doesn’t get in the way of it.
Under 161.5
