We are back for another week of WNBA best bets after the one-game appetizer Monday night between the Lynx and the Ogunbowale-less Wings. Tuesday night’s action will feature two of the top three teams in the TSI ratings in the Sun and the Liberty, who will face off against the Sparks and the Mercury, respectively. I’m looking to start another hot streak after Sunday’s complete debacle where I lost three bets by a total of two points. But such is betting, and a bad day doesn’t equal a bad season since we’re still up several units this WNBA season. Also of note, we’re now reaching the point of the season where I can begin running some alternate TSI formulas on the side, using varying weights of recent games vs season-long data to help confirm a play or deter me from making a play. I’ve found this to be very useful in my handicapping over the years.
WNBA Betting Splits | Parlay Calculator
Now, for tonight’s projections:
Connecticut Sun vs. LA Sparks
The Sun are my #2 power-rated team right now and possess the #1 defense in the league, taking on the young LA Sparks, who remain near the bottom of the ratings overall but are playing more like a middle-tier team over their last five games. Connecticut is a 12.5-point favorite at home with an Over/Under of 155.5. TSI projects Connecticut -17.5 with a total of 150. The market moved against me on the spread, going from 13.5 to 12.5, but the total is moving with me from 157.5 to 155.5. I mentioned in my intro that I’m now able to run various formulas now that teams have played over a dozen games each, and those formulas averaged Sun -16.5 on the spread and 151.5 on the total. I think my strategy with this game is going to be bet the under pre-game and look to get involved on the Sun live, perhaps laying just single digits.
WNBA Best Bet: Under 155.5
Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty
New York, who has been red hot lately, is currently a 5.5-point favorite on the road at Phoenix with an Over/Under of 167. The Liberty currently sit at #2 in the TSI ratings while the Mercury are #7, and over the last five games, I would rank New York #1 and Phoenix #6, so both teams are playing the best basketball recently. TSI projects Liberty -9 with a total of 165.5, and the average of all the formulas was -9.5, 165.5. These numbers lead me to backing the Liberty on the road in their first game since dismantling the Aces over the weekend.
WNBA Best Bet: New York Liberty 5.5
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