WNBA Best Bets for Tuesday, June 27
New York Liberty at Connecticut Sun, 166.5
New York (9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS) is riding a three-game win streak and is fresh off Sunday’s one-point overtime victory over the Mystics. The Sun (12-3 SU, 8-6-1 ATS) are now home underdogs after beating Chicago handily on Sunday and winning four straight games. Connecticut has only been a home dog three times this season: twice versus the Aces and once versus the Mystics. (They went 2-1 ATS.)
This game will also be a homecoming of sorts as it is Jonquel Jones’ first regular season game playing in Mohegan Sun as an opponent.
When these teams last played back on May 27th, Connecticut started the game completely in control and up 38-32 at the half. But New York shut them down in the second half, started seeing their shots fall, and went on to win 81-65. However, in the last month, a few things have changed for the Sun.
They will be without one of their starters, Brionna Jones, who will miss the remainder of the season after rupturing her right Achilles tendon in last Tuesday’s game. They were able to beat the Lynx and the Sky since then, but the Liberty are an entirely different beast. Fortunately, the Sun have seen major production from their two All-Stars: Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner. Bonner has scored 20 or more points in four of her last five games and dropped 41 points in their win over the Aces. Thomas just became the WNBA’s all-time leader for the most career triple-doubles (on the day she was snubbed as an All-Star starter).
As far as what has stayed the same, New York’s offense is looking stronger every day and is averaging nearly 88 points on 45 percent shooting. Both teams are at least top five in offensive and defensive rating, and both have only lost three games this season.
This time, the Sun will be on one day’s rest and playing their fifth game in 11 days, while the Liberty have played four games in that same span. Nevertheless, Connecticut has performed well, covering five of their last seven games. New York will also be without Stefanie Dolson, who is out with an ankle injury.
As far as the total, the Sun have seen six of their last eight games go over, and some fatigue could also lead to slightly sloppier defense and an over. Still, the Sun have only allowed a team to score more than 80 points five times this season.
Overall, home dogs are 18-12-1 ATS this season and cover 60 percent of the time. Also, New York is 2-3 ATS on the road. The Sun may be a little run down, but they are a home dog I’ll happily back whenever the rare opportunity presents itself.
Connecticut Sun +5.5
Seattle Storm at Minnesota Lynx -2.5, 162.5
Minnesota (4-9 SU, 6-7 ATS) and Seattle (4-9 SU, 8-4-1 ATS) are two peas in a pod. Both teams lost major players in the offseason and had rocky starts this season. Both teams are now sitting around the bottom third in offensive rating, defensive rating, and effective field goal percentage. But both teams have also turned out surprising performances lately, especially Seattle, who is now 7-4 ATS as a dog.
On the other hand, the Lynx just lost at home to the Sun, 89-68, failing to cover as four-point dogs. The Lynx are now a glaring 1-5 SU at home this season and 0-3 ATS as a favorite. Now, the Storm are second to last in opponents’ points in the paint, so they will have to mitigate that threat, but outside of that, I expect they can hang around and cover and maybe even win outright.
This total opened closer to 163.5 and has moved down. The Lynx have hit four straight unders and six of their last seven games have also gone under. Meanwhile, the Storm like to play fast (4th in pace) and lead the league in fast break points. But if the Lynx continue to struggle on offense, we could see another under in Minnesota.
Seattle Storm +2.5
Lean Under 162.5
Dallas Wings -3 at Phoenix Mercury, 168
The Mercury (2-10 SU, 3-9 ATS) have won just two games this season. It has been loss after loss for this storied franchise. They just lost on the road to Seattle. They lost both road games in Dallas this season, back to back, first by five, then by much more than five. And now they have lost their head coach. On Sunday evening, Phoenix announced they were parting ways with Vanessa Nygaard and that Nikki Blue has been named interim head coach for the remainder of the 2023 season. The Mercury could look refreshed under new management at home, but I’ll believe it when I see it.
The visiting Wings (6-8 SU, 4-9-1 ATS) have gone 1-5 SU and ATS in their last six games. They are also 1-6 ATS on the road this season, and this game will be their third road game in five days. Basically, it’s all bad. But the Wings have already beaten Phoenix twice this year and are 2nd in points off turnovers, while the Mercury are dead last in turnover percentage. The Wings should be able to win again, but their recent skid deters me from backing them here.
The total is high because both teams play fast, and neither is a defensive threat, with Dallas ranked 6th in defensive rating and Phoenix 12th. However, both of the previous matchups in Dallas hit the under (167.5, 168.5), and the Wings could be worn down on this tough road stretch. Phoenix will have to put up 80+ points to help with an over here, and that may be too tall a task (even for Brittney Griner.)
Lean Under 168
