It was odd not having a single WNBA game to watch or bet on yesterday, but we are back with a three-game slate Tuesday night so you know TSI has you covered with projections for those. We’ve had a bad day here and there so far this season, but for the most part, my VSiN article plays have been on the money so I’m looking forward to what this week has in store for us.
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Here are today’s projections from my T Shoe Index:
Connecticut Sun vs Washington Mystics
The Sun enter this game #2 in the TSI ratings and 12.5-point favorites at home with an Over/Under of 163. TSI projects the Sun as 14.5-point favorites against the #11 Mystics with a total of 150.5. Full disclosure, I bet this under Sunday night at 167, and I still think the 163 is too high, although obviously I don’t feel as great about it now that the line has moved four points. We’re almost to the point where only 2024 data is considered, but until then I will continue to reference both TSI – which is a more blended projection of preseason and in-season data – and the in-season only data, which is what TSI slowly morphs into as the season progresses. The in-season data would make this total even lower at 147, but out of principle I shouldn’t encourage you to bet 163 when 167 was available 36 hours ago.
Strong lean: Under 163
Chicago Sky vs New York Liberty
Chicago takes the floor for the first time since Saturday’s controversial game against the Fever, when Chennedy Carter, um, bumped Caitlin Clark late in the 1-point Fever win. The Liberty, meanwhile, took advantage of the Fever being on a back-to-back Sunday and took Indiana to the woodshed. Both teams should be decently rested for this matchup, as New York is currently a 7-point favorite with an Over/Under of 166. TSI projects Liberty -3 with a total of 162, and taking into consideration only how these teams have played on the court this season I would make it basically a pick ‘em with a total of 158.5. I think this is a good spot to buy the Sky after losing to the Fever and a spot to fade the inconsistent Liberty coming off a 100-point game.
Bet: Sky +7 (Play to +6)
Seattle Storm vs Phoenix Mercury
Speaking of inconsistent teams, the Mercury fit that profile perfectly. I think this team takes the shape of its veteran leader, Diana Taurasi, who lives and dies by the 3 at this point in her career. When she’s hitting, the Mercury are tough to beat. When she’s not, and Kahleah Copper has to carry the entire offense, they’re much more vulnerable. They take on a Storm team that took a minute to get its bearings but has been much better lately and is a 7-point home favorite with an Over/Under of 167.5. TSI projects Seattle -6.5 with a total of 161.5, and the in-season numbers say 162.5 on the total. Again, full disclosure, I actually took a worse number on this total Sunday, betting under 166.5, so I feel comfortable giving out this total at the better number – the market moving against me doesn’t really scare me in the WNBA because I trust the numbers and they’ve been outperforming the closing line more often than not this season, especially lately.
Bet: Under 167.5 (Play to 165.5)
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