WNBA Best Bets for Tuesday, May 30.
Indiana Fever at Connecticut Sun, -12.5, 159.5.
On Sunday, the Indiana Fever ended their 20-game losing streak that dated back to last season with a 90-87 win over the Atlanta Dream. The last time Indiana won a game was on June 19, 2022. Now they head to Mohegan Sun Arena on one day’s rest. Meanwhile, the Connecticut Sun is coming off a Saturday road loss to the New York Liberty. The Sun is in a prime position to bounce back and should cover this spread, but I’d rather look to the under on this game.
These two teams already played each other to open the season on May 19th, and the Sun won 70-61, covering as 7.5-point favorites. The total for that game was set at 161.5 and went under by 30 points. Through their first four games, the Sun is currently ranked 11th in EFG%, but to be fair they have played some of the toughest defenses so far versus the Mystics and the Liberty. Still, they are also 11th in pace, while Indiana sits at seventh in pace and 11th in offensive rating. Even if we see a surge in scoring compared to that season opener, we should still land under this total of 159.5.
Under 159.5
Chicago Sky at Atlanta Dream -3, 162.
The Chicago Sky has certainly silenced a lot of doubters by starting their season 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS. In fact, just four games into the season, the Sky actually sit second in the league in defensive rating. On the offensive side, the Sky averages 78.8 points on 43.2% shooting.
As for the Dream, their lone win so far was against the Lynx, a struggling team at the bottom of the pack. Atlanta’s issues with turnovers have continued from last season, and they still struggle to close games out. Nevertheless, they are averaging 82.6 points on 38.4% shooting.
Chicago will be missing Morgan Bertsch and Rebekah Gardner due to injury, but they are still the better team and capable of winning this game outright, so I’ll take the points. Also, if you find a Rhyne Howard points prop, go ahead and bet it over. It was set at 14.5 in her last game. She scored 23 points and is now averaging 17 ppg.
Chicago Sky +3
Minnesota Lynx at Dallas Wings -5 (-5.5), 166.5 (167.5)
Minnesota is off to a rough start, currently 0-4 SU and ATS. Dallas, on the other hand, has won two games and most recently lost a close fight in Chicago on Sunday. The Wings should be able to cover, if only because they can easily score, and the Lynx cannot. The Lynx are 10th in the league in both offensive rating and pace, and they have recorded three unders in their last four games. Dallas has seen nothing but overs, but this total opened at 167.5, a whole six points higher than any total from their first three games.
Also of note, the Wings’ star center, Teaira McCowan, has been out since injuring her knee in the season opener and is listed as questionable for Tuesday’s game. They have been getting by without her, but her return would provide a noticeable boost to their offense.
Arike Ogunbowale getting her shots up is one of the most consistent things we’ve seen from the Wings through their first three games, with her scoring 27, 26, and 27 points. She’s averaging nearly 24 shot attempts per game and 3.6 three-pointers. Her points prop on Sunday was set at 23.5, and if it’s close to that for this game, I’ll also look to play an over.
Arike Ogunbowale Over 23.5 Points
New York Liberty -15 at Seattle Storm, 162.5
Breanna Stewart returns to Seattle with her super team in tow to play what remains of her former team, which is pretty much the Jewell Lloyd show now. The Storm has only played two games so far and opened their season with a 105-64 loss to the Aces, a game in which the Aces were favored by just 13.5.
The Liberty had a rough opener of their own with an 80-64 loss to the Mystics, but they are fresh off an impressive win over the Connecticut Sun. New York can likely cover as 15-point road favorites, though I wouldn’t be excited to bet it. I could also see this game going under the total, but for now, I’ll say the Storm’s forecast is too cloudy to predict.
