Yesterday was the first losing day we’ve had in a while, but in the “existential showdown” between TSI and the betting market, TSI shone brightly again as the Minnesota Lynx comfortably beat the Las Vegas Aces as 6.5-point underdogs in a game where TSI had a 9.5-point discrepancy in favor of the Lynx, making them 3-point favorites. We’re back tonight with just a one game slate, so I will give my projection on that as well as provide a power ratings update and a look at futures odds.
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Here are today’s projections from my T Shoe Index:
Connecticut Sun vs Chicago Sky
The Sky are 7.5-point home underdogs to the dominant Sun, who just pounded Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever on Monday night. The total for this game is set at 153.5 and TSI projects the Sun -4.5 with a total of 146.5. With solid value on both the side and total, I’m more inclined to play the total, as those have been excellent so far this season and the market seems to agree with TSI to an extent, as the line has dropped two points.
Bet: Under 153.5 (Play to 153)
T Shoe Index Power Ratings Update
The Lynx still sit atop the TSI, while the Aces are in a freefall and the Atlanta Dream also saw a 2 point drop over the last week after getting pounded by the previously winless Mystics.
| Team | Rating |
| Minnesota Lynx | 10.3 |
| Connecticut Sun | 7.9 |
| New York Liberty | 7.6 |
| Seattle Storm | 3.5 |
| Las Vegas Aces | 2.8 |
| Chicago Sky | 1.3 |
| Phoenix Mercury | -2.8 |
| Atlanta Dream | -2.9 |
| Dallas Wings | -3.5 |
| Washington Mystics | -5.3 |
| Los Angeles Sparks | -7.3 |
| Indiana Fever | -11.3 |
WNBA Championship Odds
With the Aces looking anything but the part of 2-time defending champions, let’s take a look at the futures market to see how odds have shifted and where there potentially could be an opportunity to invest in a team who’s looking strong out of the gate (Minnesota, Seattle, Connecticut).
WNBA Championship Odds via DraftKings
- Aces +110
- Liberty +175
- Sun +700
- Lynx +1600
- Storm +1700
- Wings +4500
- Mercury +4500
- Dream +8000
- Fever +12000
- Sky +120000
The one caveat I’d emphasize when evaluating the Aces is that Chelsea Gray – by far the best passer in the WNBA, in my opinion – has not played a single game. They’ve clearly missed her. However, the Lynx at +1600 and the Storm at +1700 as the number 1 and 4 teams in my ratings, respectively, are interesting. I personally don’t know if the Lynx have the star power to get through a playoff run and win it, but they’re playing great ball right now and the long odds are probably worth considering if you’re looking to invest in a futures ticket. The Storm, I think, do have the star power with Jewell Lloyd and Nneka Ogwumike and Skylar Diggins-Smith. They might actually be the best bet on the board.
For all of my prop bets and live plays, be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex and turn your notifications on to get the real time updates from me on all things WNBA.
