I love starting the week off with a sweep and that’s exactly what we did on Tuesday, going 2-0 with two pretty easy wins as the Sparks won outright as 5.5 point underdogs and the under in Sky/Storm was never really in danger. Let’s hope to keep the momentum rolling into Wednesday, where we have another nice three-game slate.
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Here are today’s projections from my T Shoe Index:
Washington Mystics vs Atlanta Dream
The Mystics are coming off of a drubbing from the Storm, while the Dream lost by 13 to the Lynx in their last outing. Atlanta is currently a 3-point favorite after opening as around a 5-point favorite, while the Over/Under sits at 164.5 after climbing from 162.5. TSI actually indicates Washington should be a 1-point favorite here with a total of 164. I’d also favor Washington using only 2024 data, so I’ve already bet them at +5 and I’d still take them at +3.
Bet: Mystics +3 (Play to +2)
New York Liberty vs Phoenix Mercury
This is a bad spot for the Mercury, no way around it. They’re on a back-to-back and playing the superteam Liberty in New York after the Liberty just lost their last game. That being said, the market is certainly accounting for this, as New York is a 14-point favorite with an Over/Under of 170.5. TSI projects the Liberty -12.5 with a total of 162. I can understand the 1.5-point discrepancy on the spread, as that seems reasonable to adjust for the back-to-back for Phoenix; however, I see no numbers indicating the total should be this high, so I like the under here, as tired legs will certainly help with that also.
Bet: Under 170.5
Minnesota Lynx vs Las Vegas Aces
If there was a “most improved team” award, it might go to Minnesota early in this season. They’ll certainly get a stiff test tonight against the defending champs, who have looked relatively mortal so far this year. Vegas is a 4.5-point favorite with an Over/Under of 169.5, while TSI projects the Aces as a 6-point favorite, which is about where they opened, with a total of 169. I don’t have a play on this game, as the data is pretty conflicting – in-season data would make Lynx -1. This one should just be a good data point for the model to further understand these teams moving forward.
Advice: Stay away
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