Fresh off a much-needed 2-0 night in WNBA betting, it’s time to look at the always-appetizing weekend slate of W hoops and try to keep the positive momentum rolling after a rough stretch Sunday-Wednesday this week. Friday night’s action features Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever vs the Rhyne Howard-less Atlanta Dream, while the Aces (who got star guard Chelsea Gray back) take on defensive juggernaut Connecticut and MVP candidate Alyssa Thomas.
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Saturday and Sunday have promising slates as well, so let’s get to the T Shoe Index weekend projections:
Friday
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream
It appears the betting market didn’t realize Rhyne Howard was going to miss this game when the initial line opened at Atlanta -4, but that has disappeared and the Fever now sit as 2.5 point favorites in Atlanta; however, although Howard is a good player, this is a huge overreaction. I could only justify a maximum of a 3.5-point value for Howard, and TSI projects Atlanta as a 5.5-point favorite at full strength, so the most I could adjust this would be to Atlanta -2. The Over/Under has remained steady around 163.5, and TSI projects 165. The Fever are playing great lately but this is too much value to pass on.
WNBA Best Bet: Atlanta Dream +2.5 (Play to pk)
Las Vegas Aces vs. Connecticut Sun
The Aces have been hard to peg from a ratings standpoint; they’ve been without Chelsea Gray until last game, they signed Tiffany Hayes recently, and their game-by-game ratings have been more inconsistent than traveling calls in the NBA. After opening as just 1.5 point favorites, that line is now 6.5 against the #1 defense in the league, Connecticut, with an Over/Under of 164.5. TSI technically projects Aces -2, but if you want to assume now that they’re all full strength that they return to what they’d be in the preseason, I could make this as high as 5.5, but I can’t get to 6.5, and the total is projected at 160.5. The Aces are too volatile for me to feel great about a best bet, but I’d lean Sun +6.5 here.
WNBA Best Bet: Lean Connecticut Sun +6.5 (to +5.5)
Saturday
Washington Mystics vs. Dallas Wings
No team has disappointed more than Dallas this season, and they’re only getting worse. Over the last five games, no team has a lower TSI rating than the Wings, and they’re taking on Washington, who appears to be climbing out of the cellar from a power rating standpoint. The Mystics are 1.5 point home favorites with an Over/Under of 161.5, and TSI projects Mystics -5.5 with a total of 162.5. Fading the Wings is an easy decision.
WNBA Best Bet: Washington Mystics -1.5 (Play to -3)
NY Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks
In a rematch of Thursday’s game, New York is again 12.5-point favorites with an Over/Under of 166.5. We cashed the over (at 163) last night in this matchup, and TSI projects Liberty -18.5 with a total of 167.5 again. Over these teams’ last five games, I’d even project the total way higher at 177, so I’m going to go Over again in this matchup.
WNBA Best Bet: Over 166.5 (Play to 167)
Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury
Another team that’s been difficult to get a handle on recently is the Phoenix Mercury, who recently got Brittney Griner back into the lineup and have been on a major upswing (4th in TSI over their last five games). The Lynx are 5.5-point home favorites over the Mercury with an Over/Under of 160.5. TSI projects Minnesota -7 with a total of 161; however, looking at the last five games only, I’d only make Minnesota a 2.5-point favorite, so the conflicting numbers will keep me off this matchup, but I am excited to see it.
WNBA Best Bet: Stay away
Sunday (No lines posted. TSI projections in parentheses)
Washington Mystics (-5.5) vs. Dallas Wings (162.5)
Atlanta Dream vs. New York Liberty (-8) (162.5)
Seattle Storm vs. Connecticut Sun (-4) (148.5)
Chicago Sky (-4) vs. Indiana Fever (167)
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