WNBA 2024 Predictions
I’ve been busy in these last few weeks in between the end of the college basketball season and now, the ramp-up to WNBA season. My X followers (@TShoeIndex) can testify that WNBA, along with women’s college basketball, is the sport we can profit the most from using my T Shoe Index.
As a reminder, or if you’re new here, the T Shoe Index is my proprietary projections model that adjusts for both tempo and opponent, solving the question, “How many points would Team A be expected to score and allow against the average team?” Using this formula and accounting for home court advantage, I’m able to create power ratings and projections for every game of the season; thus, producing a win total projection for each team.
After running these projections, here are the projected win totals for each team:
| Team | TSI Projected Wins | DraftKings Line | Difference |
| Dallas Wings | 24.5 | 20.5 | 4.0 |
| New York Liberty | 32.8 | 30.5 | 2.3 |
| Chicago Sky | 12.6 | 11.5 | 1.1 |
| Seattle Storm | 24.8 | 24.5 | 0.3 |
| Los Angeles Sparks | 10.7 | 10.5 | 0.2 |
| Las Vegas Aces | 33.4 | 33.5 | -0.1 |
| Minnesota Lynx | 16.1 | 16.5 | -0.4 |
| Washington Mystics | 11.1 | 11.5 | -0.4 |
| Atlanta Dream | 17.5 | 18.5 | -1.0 |
| Indiana Fever | 19.5 | 21.5 | -2.0 |
| Connecticut Sun | 22.4 | 24.5 | -2.1 |
| Phoenix Mercury | 14.5 | 19.5 | -5.0 |
So, how can we use this to add to our futures portfolio and perhaps find a team(s) to root for (or against) if you’re just getting into the WNBA? Here are my WNBA 2024 predictions and best bets, based on the projections:
Dallas Wings Over 20.5 Wins
For starters, Dallas has increased its win total each since 2020, including winning 22 games a year ago. Superstar Arike Ogunbowale is back and rising star Satou Sabally returns to the Wings as well after averaging over 18 points per game last season on top of Ogunbowale’s 21 points per game. I like this tandem a lot, and Dallas had a sneaky good pickup in the draft with Ohio State’s Jacy Sheldon, who is a two-time Big Ten defensive player of the year and a capable offensive threat as well.
Ogunbowale is coming off a season in which she was a +13 on the court per 100 possessions, and Sabally had a +9.8 on/off split per 100 possessions. This Wings team comes into the season with the #1 projected offense in the W, and if they can improve whatsoever on defense – they were last in the W in TSI defensive rating last year – I think they could sail Over this 20.5 win line.
Phoenix Mercury Under 19.5 Wins
On the surface, this Mercury team looks like world beaters; GOAT candidate Diana Taurasi is back, along with the Shaq of the WNBA, Brittney Griner. Phoenix also took a big swing and traded for former WNBA Finals MVP Kahleah Copper and signed veteran PG Natasha Cloud. The market clearly loved these moves, and at first glance I did, too.
Phoenix won just nine games last year and was power-rated dead last in the TSI, so they needed a jolt of energy; however, I’m not sold on the idea that the moves they made – although nice moves – are going to account for 11 wins when you factor in Taurasi’s mileage throughout her career. I do expect, potentially, a better season from Griner after being back in rhythm after the unfathomable Russia fiasco.
Here’s why TSI is lower on Phoenix than the market; despite the fact that Griner is a physical mismatch for literally everyone in the league, her on/off numbers are only +4.5 for her career, and her on-court numbers were -7.8 per 100 possessions last season, so even an improvement there could still not really be an advantage for the Mercury. Copper, despite being the former finals MVP and a well-respected player in the league, has a -2.1 per 100 possessions on/off split for her career, including -4 last year. TSI is projecting 14.5 wins for Phoenix, which is right about their average for the last 4 years.
Stay tuned at VSiN.com, where I’ll be releasing more WNBA 2024 predictions and best bets as the season unfolds.
